Moving Averages Begin to Entangle, Acrylic Acid Prices Start to Loosen

April 14th News

I. Market Data

This week (April 7-13), the market for high-quality acrylic acid in East China showed a pattern of high-level stagnation and weakening, with the benchmark price slightly falling from 13,083.33 CNY/ton to 12,983.33 CNY/ton, a cumulative decrease of 0.76% within the week; compared to the high point at the beginning of April at 13,116.67 CNY/ton, it has cumulatively decreased by 1.02%. The market is filled with a strong wait-and-see sentiment, and trading activity remains persistently low.

From a price cycle perspective, the current acrylic acid price in China is at an absolute historical high: the highest price of the year reached 13116.67 CNY/ton, with the latest quote at 12983.33 CNY/ton, only 133.34 CNY/ton away from the annual high. Compared to the lowest point of the year at 5850 CNY/ton, the price increase exceeds 122%. The price has consistently remained "high" for one year, clearly indicating a super-increase signal, with significant characteristics of a price bubble.

II. Supply and Demand Side

Supply Side: Since March, the price of acrylic acid has been continuously rising and is currently at a historical high. The profit margin for Chinese producers is substantial, with the overall operating rate estimated to be around 81.05%, an increase of about 4.40% from the previous period. However, some companies still have maintenance plans.

Demand Side: Operating rates in downstream industries such as acrylate and superabsorbent resins (SAP) are generally moderate. Terminal demand has entered the traditional off-season, and downstream companies show insufficient acceptance of high prices. Most procurement is driven by rigid demand, with weak willingness to stockpile goods, making it difficult to sustain further price increases. High prices are curbing downstream purchasing intentions, and incremental demand support continues to weaken.

Cost Side: Propylene, as the core raw material, has recently been trading at high levels but has shown slight easing. As of April 14, the benchmark price of propylene stood at 9,207.67 CNY per ton, up 4.82% from the beginning of this month (8,784.33 CNY per ton), providing a floor support for acrylic acid prices.

III. [Xianhuotong] (https://www.100ppi.com/product/?f=xht) Breakdown

1. Positional Characteristics: Multi-cycle positional differentiation—short-term low, medium- to long-term high.

In the short term (10–20 days), prices have slightly retraced and entered a lower-range zone; however, in the medium to long term (over 30 days), prices remain at an absolutely high level. There is a severe divergence in positioning across multiple timeframes, reflecting a structural contradiction between short-term overselling and medium-to-long-term bubbles.

2. Trend Characteristics: The moving averages are tangled and flat, indicating a weakening of the upward momentum.

From the trend of the moving averages, the current acrylic acid price, 10-day moving average, 20-day moving average, and 30-day moving average in China are highly intertwined and nearly flat.

The short-term (10-day) moving average is almost perfectly aligned with the long-term (20-day/30-day) moving averages, showing neither a clear upward trend nor a downward trend. This pattern is characteristic of a tangled, or oscillating, market trend.

The 60-day moving average is still in an upward channel, but the slope of the uptrend has significantly slowed down, reflecting that the medium- to long-term upward momentum has notably weakened, and the market has entered a high-level game stage.

Four, SpotCom Analysis: Key Indicators Flatten, Auxiliary Indicators Diverge

1. Key Indicators (Moving Average Crossover): No clear buy or sell signals

SpotCom's core logic is based on the "short-term moving average (10-day) crossing the long-term moving average (20-day)" as a buy or sell signal:

This week, the 10-day moving average and the 20-day moving average remain closely intertwined without a clear crossover. Key indicators have yet to issue a definitive buy or sell signal, leaving the market in a chaotic period of uncertainty as to its direction—this is precisely the core reason behind the strong wait-and-see sentiment among traders.

On April 10th and April 7th, there was a brief "crossover" signal where the 10-day moving average crossed below the 30-day moving average, but it did not form an effective downward trend. This was a short-term disturbance and did not constitute a trend-following sell signal.

2. Auxiliary indicators: Small positions can be tested in the short term, while caution is advised for medium to long term.

Overall, given the differentiation in multi-cycle positions, it is only suitable for small positions to test the waters and absolutely not suitable for heavy positions to chase highs. Strict risk control is necessary.

5. Future Market Forecast

1. Short Term (1-2 Weeks): The current price is at an all-time high, and the one-year overbought signal is clear, leaving extremely limited upside potential. Short-term moving averages are entangled, momentum is waning, and market sentiment remains largely cautious, lacking any significant driving force for further price increases. We expect short-term acrylic acid prices to fluctuate within the range of 12,800–13,100 CNY per ton. If downstream demand fails to show a noticeable recovery, there is a possibility—though not ruled out—that prices could fall below 12,800 CNY per ton and initiate a sustained downward trend.

2. Medium- to Long-term (1–3 months): The current round of acrylic acid price increases has persisted for two months, with price hikes exceeding 120%. This represents a typical case of excessive price escalation, where prices have significantly deviated from fundamental values. As high inventory levels accumulate and downstream resistance intensifies, downward pressure is steadily building up over the medium to long term. Unless demand shows unexpectedly strong positive factors, we expect prices to gradually fall back within the reasonable range of 10,000–11,000 CNY per ton over the next three months, returning to pricing that reflects underlying fundamentals.

In summary, the acrylic market experienced volatile declines this week. While the short-term trend is leaning downward, the medium- to long-term bullish structure remains intact. Moving forward, it will be crucial to closely monitor the crossover signals of moving averages as well as changes in supply and demand fundamentals.