July 17th, according to reports
According to the commodity market analysis system, the price of ethanol in China has fallen to 5,598 CNY/ton, with a price decrease of 4.83% over the past three months, a month-on-month decline of 0.66%, and a year-on-year decline of 1.23%. The supply-demand contradiction in the ethanol market has been temporarily alleviated. Based on the current maintenance plans, it is expected that the capacity utilization rate will continue to rise in July. The market, influenced by the situation of oversupply, will see fluctuating adjustments in ethanol prices.
Cost Perspective: From the cost side, in the short term, there is relatively high use of alternative feed sources, limiting demand for corn. As a result, the market as a whole lacks upward momentum and continues to operate with stable but weak pricing. Ethanol costs are exerting downward pressure.
On the supply side, looking at the supply side, the supply of bio-fermentation ethanol has increased. Hongzhan Laha has resumed production, while the Jilin Fukan plant has shut down, and Henan Hanyong’s operations have returned to normal. Currently, the operating rate in the ethanol industry stands at 47.89%, with output reaching approximately 813,400 tons—a rise of 47,400 tons from the previous month. The ethanol supply situation is being weighed down by bearish factors.
Demand Side: On the downstream side, sentiment in the ethyl acetate market is strongly bullish. However, as prices rise rapidly, downstream buyers are gradually becoming reluctant to take on more supply. Demand for baijiu remains sluggish, as we’re in the traditionally slow season for this sector, and short-term recovery appears limited. The demand for ethanol is being weighed down by negative factors.
Market Forecast: With the maintenance period in major production areas coming to an end and terminal demand improving, the traditional demand sector remains in the off-season. Currently, China’s ethanol market continues to be characterized by a supply-demand imbalance, with supply exceeding demand. Ethanol analysts expect the ethanol market to enter a consolidation phase.
