June 18th News
According to the commodity market analysis system: Recently, the price of lithium carbonate has been on a rollercoaster. The price rose from 160,000 CNY/ton on June 7th to 172,000 CNY/ton on June 12th, and then fell to 166,000 CNY/ton by this weekend.
Demand Side: Downstream demand remains robust, providing solid support.
Statistics show that the production schedules of leading battery companies in July increased by 5-10% month-over-month. For some cell manufacturers with a higher proportion of energy storage business, their shipments in the second quarter grew by 30% compared to the first quarter. The continuous prosperity of the downstream terminal new energy vehicle and energy storage markets in China provides a solid demand base for lithium prices.
Supply Side: Multiple Disruptions Both Domestically and Internationally
China: On June 18, market news indicated that the Dazhong Mining's Hunan Linwu Jijiaoshan lithium mine, with an annual production capacity of 40,000 tons of lithium carbonate, officially commenced operations. The Qinghai salt lakes have entered the high-water season, leading to a seasonal increase in production. The pre-approval and site selection opinion for the CATL Jianxiawo lithium mine project has been revoked. Both positive and negative factors are present.
Overseas: Industry estimates indicate that Zimbabwe’s lithium shipments will return to normal levels in July, with monthly supply reaching between 20,000 and 25,000 tons, making it the most significant source of additional lithium raw materials for China in the third quarter. Mali and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, both major lithium resource countries, continue to face ongoing instability and terrorist threats, posing potential risks.
Policy End: Key Mineral Legislation Implemented, Reshaping the Long-term Pricing Logic of Lithium Resources in China
On June 15, the Implementation Regulations of the Mineral Resources Law of the People's Republic of China officially came into effect, becoming the core policy catalyst for the recent surge in the rare metals sector and the expected rise in lithium prices. For the first time, these regulations, in the form of administrative law, have explicitly listed lithium, along with 35 other minerals including rare earths, cobalt, and nickel, in the national strategic mineral resources directory. This further improves the emergency supply system for lithium resources, gradually weakening the logic of pure market-based supply and demand pricing.
Future Market Forecast:
SpotCom shows that an upward breakout signal is about to appear, and lithium carbonate may rebound and rise. Considering the current volatile situation, it is expected to fluctuate and trend upwards in the short term. However, it is still necessary to pay attention to the changes in market supply and demand.
