September 15 news
Price Trend
According to Spotcom data, in the first half of September, the Chinese PC market saw an increase in prices, with spot prices for various grades continuing to rise. As of September 15, the benchmark price for mixed PC was around 15,333.33 CNY/ton, representing a 4.31% increase from the beginning of the month.
Reason Analysis
Supply Side: Since early September, the operating rates of China's PC polymerization enterprises have not been high. The overall industry load rate is around 75%. The production loss gap is stable, with the current weekly output approaching just over 60,000 tons, and the shipping fluency of polymerization plants is acceptable. In addition, some facilities of Zhejiang Petrochemical have recently resumed operations, but the amount of capacity returning has a limited impact on the overall supply. Coupled with the ongoing major maintenance at Wanhua Chemical, the supply side provides moderate support for PC.
Regarding Raw Materials: As shown in the chart above, the Chinese Bisphenol A market has experienced a significant upward trend since early September. The volatile situation in the Middle East and the difficulty in reaching a ceasefire agreement have heightened shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz. Influenced by these factors, market concerns about international crude oil supply have intensified, driving up geopolitical premiums and prompting corresponding price increases for acetone and phenol. Meanwhile, supplies of genuine branded products within the market are tightening, with factories and traders holding low inventory levels. Market sentiment toward Bisphenol A remains positive, and spot prices are predominantly staying at high levels and continuing to rise. Low-priced downstream supplies are becoming scarce, pushing the actual transaction price center upward. Overall, this provides strong support for polycarbonate (PC) costs.
Demand Side: Purchasing activity at downstream PC factories has yet to show significant signs of a peak-season boost, and end-user enterprises continue to operate at low capacity utilization levels, resulting in generally moderate demand for products such as board casings. However, given that the mid-term supply-demand balance for PC remains tight, traders are attempting to quote higher prices. Currently, prices have already reached high levels, and the market is characterized by strong wait-and-see sentiment toward high-priced supplies, with buyers adopting a cautious approach to inventory building. Overall, the demand side provides only modest support for PC spot prices.
Future Market Forecast
In the first half of September, the Chinese PC market continued to rise. The price of upstream bisphenol A has been continuously increasing, significantly raising the cost support for PC. The operating rate of Chinese PC polymerization plants is low, and the supply in the future will have limited changes. Transactions in the market are mainly based on rigid demand, with cautious inventory preparation. Currently, the PC supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the prices of raw materials at the far end have been holding at high levels recently. Analysts believe that PC may maintain its high and firm position in the short term, and it is recommended to closely monitor crude oil and the demand side.
