June 26th, News
According to the commodity market analysis system, from June 19 to June 26, 2026, the toluene market in China experienced a fluctuating downward trend. The price of toluene in Shandong region decreased from 6,151 CNY/ton to 5,834.33 CNY/ton, with a price decrease of 5.15% during the period.
This week, the Chinese toluene market as a whole showed a weak trend, with the price center of gravity continuing to shift downward. The trading atmosphere in the market was sluggish, and the overall market remained in a weak adjustment phase. Under the ongoing tug-of-war between bulls and bears, the market lacked the conditions to rally upward, and its overall performance was under significant pressure. This week, the Chinese toluene market continued its weak downward trend, with the price center of gravity steadily moving lower and overall trading activity remaining subdued.
Cost Side: Crude oil prices are fluctuating and weakening, with continued insufficient support.
This week, international crude oil prices showed an overall downward trend, with only a few trading days seeing minor rebounds due to geopolitical factors. The overall volatility was weak, leading to continued insufficient cost support for the toluene market. Aromatic futures followed the trend of crude oil, operating mostly bearishly, failing to boost market confidence in spot markets. During the week, crude oil prices repeatedly fell below key levels, causing toluene production costs to decline. Petrochemical companies continuously lowered their listed prices, further reducing the central level of market spot prices. At the end of the month, crude oil prices slightly recovered, and aromatic night sessions were stronger, but this could only temporarily lift market sentiment and was not enough to reverse the weak cost situation. As of June 25, the settlement price of U.S. WTI crude oil futures was $71.92 per barrel, and the settlement price of the September contract for Brent crude oil futures was $75.50 per barrel.
Supply side: Overall supply is abundant, and inventory digestion is slow.
Chinese refineries are maintaining stable operations, with fewer toluene plant maintenance activities this week. Major producers are operating smoothly, and the market supply remains abundant. Supply in major production areas such as East China and South China is sufficient, and the flow of goods between regions is smooth, without any significant supply shortages. Port inventory pressure is manageable, but due to weak demand, the pace of inventory digestion is slow, exerting a hidden downward pressure on prices. Export negotiation activity is low, and the international market has weak demand, making it difficult for external sales channels to move goods smoothly. This further exacerbates the situation of ample supply in China.
Demand Side: Weak demand during the off-season; cautious sentiment prevails.
This week, the industry is in a traditional off-season for consumption. Overall demand from downstream sectors is being released at a slow pace, and there is a strong sentiment of waiting and observing within the market. Most purchases are driven by immediate needs. The operating rates in terminal industries remain low, with insufficient order volumes, leading to weak procurement demand for toluene, making it difficult to support bulk purchases. After the previous consecutive price declines, there has been a slight increase in the willingness to replenish stocks at lower levels, but these are mostly short-term small orders. The overall purchasing power remains weak, and the enthusiasm for procurement in the terminal market is consistently low. The narrow spread between benzene and toluene limits the upward potential for toluene, further dampening downstream procurement interest. Market trading activity remains at a low level.
Market Outlook:
The short-term toluene market in China continues to follow a low-level fluctuation trend, with no significant signs of recovery in the market situation. Prices are likely to remain weak in the near term. There is still uncertainty in the cost of crude oil, and the supply side continues to face pressure from ample stock. Demand remains weak during the off-season, and under multiple negative factors, prices may continue to decline slightly. Going forward, it will be important to closely monitor the trend of crude oil prices. As the off-season gradually comes to an end, there is an expectation of a steady recovery in downstream demand. Combined with gradual adjustments in the market fundamentals, it is expected that the toluene market in China will gradually stabilize, and a moderate recovery is anticipated in the later period.
