June 25 News Curve Comparison Chart
Recently, the polyethylene market in China has been under pressure and declining. According to Spotcom data: The average price of LLDPE (7042) on June 19 was 7,806 CNY/ton, and on June 24 it was 7,541 CNY/ton, a decrease of 3.39%. The average price of LDPE (2426H) on June 19 was 9,650 CNY/ton, and on June 24 it was 9,133 CNY/ton, a decrease of 5.35%. The average price of HDPE (5000S) on June 19 was 10,062 CNY/ton, and on June 24 it was 9,782 CNY/ton, a decrease of 2.78%.
On the cost side: Raw material prices continue to decline. Geopolitical premiums are fading, and international crude oil prices have dropped sharply. As a result, the central point of polyethylene production costs continues to move downward. Petrochemical factory prices and traders’ quotes have been lowered consecutively, directly driving spot prices across the board lower.
Supply side: The overall supply is loose, with only local structural tightness. Imported goods are arriving in large quantities, and external supplies continue to flow into the Chinese market. Previously shut-down facilities in China have resumed production, and the overall operating rate of the industry has steadily increased. The total supply of goods has increased more than it has decreased, with only some facilities undergoing long-term maintenance, leading to local structural tightness in supply, which only slightly alleviates the price decrease.
Demand side: The industry is entering its traditional off-season. Production of agricultural and mulch films is winding down, while autumn greenhouse film production has yet to get started. Downstream sectors such as packaging, injection molding, and pipe manufacturing are also simultaneously entering the off-season. Downstream orders are lagging, and companies are adopting a “buy as needed” approach, resulting in a lack of sustained buyer interest in the market.
During the off-peak demand season, with weaker crude oil cost support and ample overall supply, polyethylene maintains a weak and volatile trend. The rate of short-term decline has slowed, but it is difficult to see a trend reversal, and the room for rebound is limited.
