July 17th, according to news,
The current round of China's refined oil price adjustment window will open at 24:00 on July 17. The retail price of refined oil in this round is about to increase. In 2026, the retail price of refined oil in China will experience nine increases, four decreases, and one suspension. During this cycle, the trend of crude oil prices has risen, and the change rate of crude oil has turned from positive to negative. The retail price of refined oil in this round is about to see its "ninth" increase.
Entering this pricing cycle, international oil prices have been on an upward trend. As of the 16th, the settlement price for the August contract of U.S. WTI crude oil futures stood at $78.95 per barrel, while the settlement price for the September contract of Brent crude oil futures reached $84.23 per barrel. During this pricing cycle, crude oil prices have risen sharply. The immediate cause of this significant jump in oil prices is the U.S. officially announcing a full-scale maritime blockade of Iran's entire coastline. Multiple geopolitical headwinds have converged, amplifying market concerns. Geopolitical risks can rapidly push up oil prices because U.S. crude oil inventories continue to decline sharply, leaving the market with insufficient reserve stocks to cushion against sudden supply shocks—a situation that has severely eroded the market’s safety margin. Influenced by this news, the crude oil market has surged significantly. As of the 17th, the change rate for crude oil varieties on the 10th working day reached 6.30%, corresponding to an increase of 300 yuan and 290 CNY per ton for gasoline and diesel in China, respectively. Converted into per-liter prices, this translates to an increase of 0.23 yuan per liter for 92-octane gasoline, 0.24 yuan per liter for 95-octane gasoline, and 0.25 yuan per liter for No. 0 diesel.
Gasoline: Recently, Chinese refineries have reduced their load, leading to a slight decrease in refined oil production. The operating rate of local refineries in Shandong remains around 50%, and the supply of refined oil in China is normal. Gasoline and diesel inventories in China have decreased somewhat, but the inventories of local refineries in Shandong and major refineries are still at relatively high levels for the year. Market participants generally hold a wait-and-see attitude, and overall buying and selling activities are moderate. The gasoline market prices have risen due to the support from crude oil. However, recent resident travel and other activities are normal, and the continuous increase in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles has created structural pressure on the traditional gasoline market. High oil prices themselves also suppress the frequency of car usage for some owners, and the demand for gasoline lacks effective support. As a result, the extent of the price increase for gasoline is limited.
In terms of diesel, the supply in the market has decreased recently. Currently, it is in the traditional off-season for consumption. The hot and rainy weather in summer has led to a slight decline in the operating rates of construction, infrastructure, and outdoor mining operations, resulting in weak demand for diesel. As the summer harvest enters its final stage, the demand for agricultural fuel has contracted. The hot and rainy weather in South China has further suppressed downstream fuel demand, leading to a weakening in diesel demand. The diesel market prices are mainly fluctuating.
Looking ahead: In the near term, it will be necessary to observe the actual enforcement intensity of the maritime blockade, including changes in the data on oil tankers docking and departing from Iranian ports, as well as the inspection duration and passage efficiency of vessels transiting the strait. If a large number of ships are forced to take detours or become stranded, the geopolitical premium on oil prices will rise further. Additionally, whether the conflict between the U.S. and Iran escalates again: the greatest upside risk is whether Iran takes countermeasures to disrupt shipping in the strait. If Iran implements restrictions on the waterway and the conflict expands, oil prices will surge again. In China, refinery operating rates are expected to remain stable in the short term, with normal supplies of refined oil products. It is projected that the short-term trend for gasoline and diesel will be mainly volatile.
