July 31 News
In July 2026, the price of bottle-grade PET polyester chips in East China showed a significant fluctuation: at the beginning of the month, the price slightly declined to reach the monthly low, then continuously rose, hitting several highs in the middle of the month. In the latter part of the month, the market saw a sharp drop, with prices quickly falling, but by the end of the month, it stabilized and gradually rebounded. Throughout the month, the price was significantly influenced by alternating cost and supply-demand factors, showing a roller-coaster trend of bottoming out, rising, falling, and warming up. The closing price at the end of the month was higher than the starting price at the beginning of the month.
I. Price Trends in July—Divided into Three Stages (Mainstream Spot Prices in East China + PR Main Contract for Bottle Chip Futures)
Phase 1: Early July (1st–15th): Low-level fluctuations with a slight upward trend and a minor rebound.
Open at the beginning of the month: Spot prices start at 6,550–6,650 CNY/ton, while the main futures contract is around 6,570 yuan.
Drivers of the price increase: Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have pushed up international crude oil prices, prompting simultaneous strength in PTA and ethylene glycol and driving up polyester production costs. Coupled with the fact that prices had fallen sharply in June and were already at low levels, downstream bottle preform and beverage companies began sporadically replenishing their inventories to meet immediate demand, prompting factories to raise their quotes accordingly—by a modest 50–100 CNY per ton on a daily basis. Peak during this phase: Prices surged to between 7,150 and 7,250 CNY per ton in mid-July, with futures reaching a high of 7,394 CNY per ton.
Constraint factors: Several newly built and restarted bottle-grade PET units are undergoing simultaneous commissioning (including Sanfangxiang, Fuhai, Hanjiang, and others, with a combined capacity of 1.65 million tons), leading to a sustained increase in supply. In the second quarter, end-use beverage companies have already locked in prices and stocked up for the third quarter, showing extremely low willingness to purchase at high prices, resulting in transactions where prices are available but markets are virtually absent.
Phase 2: Mid-to-late July (16th–28th): A sharp, cliff-like drop, with the month’s lowest point occurring during this period.
Fuse: Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have eased, causing international crude oil prices to plunge sharply. As a result, cost support for upstream polyester raw materials—PTA and ethylene glycol—has collapsed, prompting long-position funds to collectively take profits and exit the market. Extreme Decline: On July 27, the month saw its largest price drop yet, with bottle-grade PET futures plunging by 390 yuan in a single day, marking a price decrease of 5.22% and reaching a low of 7,034 CNY per ton. Spot prices followed suit, plummeting across the board; mainstream transaction prices fell below 7,200 yuan, even dipping as low as the 7,000-yuan mark.
Costs across the board are weakening with no support;
Industry operating rates are maintained at a high level of 78%-89%, with ample supply of goods in China;
China's beverage consumption is nearing the end of its low season, with June beverage production down 3.2% year-on-year, and packaging demand remaining weak; export orders have also shrunk, with bottle exports in June down 7.1% year-on-year, as overseas buyers hold back from purchasing.
Factory inventories have slightly increased, with available inventory within the factory rising to 8.78 days. The pressure to ship goods is forcing price reductions for promotions.
Phase 3: Late July (29–31): Oversold Rebound, Prices Recovering
After a sharp decline, the market's panic sentiment has been fully released. Coupled with a slight stabilization in crude oil prices and low prices stimulating downstream buyers to replenish their stocks, there is a technical rebound in the market.
Futures saw significant gains for two consecutive days: +2.22% on the 29th and +3.32% on the 30th, closing at 7462 CNY/ton on the 30th.
Spot prices rebounded to between 7,350 and 7,460 CNY per ton; large and long-term orders are referenced at 7,250 CNY per ton. Export FOB Shanghai prices rose to between 990 and 1,020 U.S. dollars per ton.
At the end of the month, prices closed at a relatively high level within the month, but failed to fully recover the month’s overall price decline.
II. Core Drivers of July’s Market Fluctuations
(1) Rising support and positive factors (valid for a certain period)
Fluctuations in crude oil costs are the primary driving force.
The entire month's market trend closely followed the rhythm of international crude oil: In the first ten days, oil prices surged due to geopolitical conflicts, driving a general increase in the polyester chain; in the middle and late part of the month, oil prices plummeted, causing the entire chain to decline; at the end of the month, oil prices stabilized, leading to a recovery. The supply and demand for bottle chips themselves were unable to dominate the trend. Periodic plant maintenance slightly reduced the supply.
Short-term shutdowns and maintenance at individual factories have temporarily eased supply pressure. Coupled with urgent restocking in low-price regions, this has spurred a modest rebound in market conditions.
(2) Factors Suppressing Price Declines (Long-term Dominant Fundamentals)
Newly added production capacity is being released in concentrated fashion, leading to a sustained oversupply.
In July, with the commissioning of multiple large-capacity new facilities and the restart of idle facilities, China's total supply of bottle-grade PET steadily increased. The industry's pattern of oversupply has become entrenched, and processing profits have remained slim (with an average processing fee of less than 50 CNY per ton within the month), severely compressing the room for price increases.
terminal demand is weak during the peak season, with purchases limited to essential needs.
The traditional peak season for summer beverages has failed to deliver strong results: household beverage consumption remains weak, and major manufacturers of bottled water and edible oils have all adopted a “just-in-time procurement” strategy, refusing to stockpile goods in anticipation of price hikes. Earlier on, inventories were well-stocked at low prices; only after prices plummeted did some retailers begin sporadically buying at lower prices, but this hasn't been enough to sustain steady purchasing demand.
Both domestic and foreign demand in China have weakened.
Chinese consumption is weak, and overseas demand is cooling, leading to a decline in export orders. Factories are experiencing an accumulation of inventory for domestic sales and can only rely on price reductions to clear stock.
Market sentiment is cautious, with increased volatility.
In the first half of the year, the polyester market experienced sharp increases and decreases. Traders and downstream enterprises in China became more conservative in their operations, showing weak willingness to chase rising prices and strong panic in price drops, which amplified the monthly change rate.
III. Review of Upstream and Downstream Supporting Data
Upstream raw materials (cost side)
PTA and ethylene glycol overall saw a rise and then a decline in July, with the monthly line closing lower. The comprehensive production cost of polyester first increased and then decreased, with the cost center shifting downward by the end of the month.
supply side
Monthly average operating rate is 76%-78%, with production increasing compared to June; factory inventory has slightly accumulated, and the overall inventory is in a moderately low range, with no large-scale destocking actions.
Demand side
China’s beverage production has resumed at 80%-90%, but shipments of finished products have slowed down. Bottle preform factories are adjusting their operating rates in response to fluctuations in raw material prices. Exports continue to experience negative growth.
Recycled bottle flakes
It moves in sync with the price fluctuations of virgin materials, operating within a range of 5,400 to 5,650 CNY/ton, with a narrower fluctuation range than that of virgin bottle flakes.
IV. End-of-Month Summary + August Short-Term Market Outlook
July overall conclusion
Polyester bottle chip prices in July experienced a wide fluctuation driven by costs, with the supply and demand fundamentals remaining weak throughout the month. Price increases were supported by positive crude oil news, while declines reflected the return to an oversupplied market. The average spot price for the month was approximately 7,080 CNY/ton, a slight decrease from June.
August Market Outlook
Market tone: Still following the wide fluctuations in crude oil prices, with an overall weak trend;
Uptrend resistance: With new production capacity continuing to come online and end-of-peak-season demand gradually weakening, there’s no basis for a significant price increase.
Downward support: Low prices will continue to trigger downstream restocking, limiting the room for further declines;
mainstream price range forecast: spot 7100~7550 CNY/ton, futures 7200~7600 CNY/ton, mainly fluctuating;
Key observation indicators: International crude oil trends, monthly tender prices from mainstream beverage manufacturers, and the implementation status of China’s bottle flake plant maintenance plans.
