August 11 news
I. Price Trends
According to spot market data, as of August 10, the benchmark price for acrylic acid stood at 8,383.33 CNY per ton, up 0.40% month-on-month. Reviewing the market trend, after prices completed a round of upward movement from August 3 to 4, they have since been trading sideways for an extended period, oscillating around the 8,350 CNY per ton level, with buying and selling forces entering a state of equilibrium.
From the perspective of the SpotCom moving average system and the mean difference indicator, the 10-day moving average crosses above the 20-day moving average, with the mean difference turning from negative to positive, signaling the start of a short-term uptrend. The percentile data shows that the 10-day, 20-day, 30-day, and 60-day price positions are all at high levels, the 90-day position is at a medium level, and the annual position is at a medium-low level.
Analysts believe that the short-term price has reached a high point in the nearly 2-month cycle, but compared to the historical range for the entire year, the current price has not yet reached a historical extreme. This round of increase is more of a technical recovery after a period of sideways movement, rather than a significant trend-driven rally.
II. Driver Analysis
1. Upstream raw material support: Propylene prices are strongly rising
As of August 11, the benchmark price of propylene was 8,161.00 CNY/ton, an increase of 2.94% compared to the beginning of the month (7,927.67 CNY/ton). As the core upstream raw material for acrylic acid, the rise in the price of propylene directly increases the production cost of acrylic acid, providing support for the price of acrylic acid.
2. Downstream demand expectations: Marginal improvement in butyl acrylate
Butyl acrylate is a major downstream product of acrylic acid. If the demand in downstream industries (such as coatings, adhesives, and textiles) recovers, it will boost the purchasing enthusiasm for acrylic acid. Considering the industrial chain logic, in the transmission chain of propylene-acrylic acid-butyl acrylate, the increase in the price of upstream propylene and the expected recovery of downstream demand will jointly drive the narrow upward trend of acrylic acid prices.
3. Short-term supply and demand balance: Inventory and operating rates are stable
From August 4 to August 9, prices remained stable as market supply and demand were in a “weak equilibrium”: Production enterprises maintained steady operating rates, downstream demand was primarily driven by rigid procurement, and there was neither significant inventory buildup nor supply shortages. The slight price increase on August 10 may have been triggered by some enterprises tentatively adjusting their prices, coupled with a temporary restocking phase among downstream buyers.
4. Outlook for the Future Market
In the short term, supported by rising propylene prices, the golden cross of moving averages (the 10-day moving average crossing above the 20-day moving average), and expectations of restocking by downstream users, acrylic acid prices may continue to rise within a narrow range. It is crucial to monitor the actual purchasing power of downstream users and the sustainability of propylene prices.
Mid-term: If propylene prices remain strong and downstream demand (such as butyl acrylate) continues to recover, acrylic acid could break through 8,400 CNY/ton. However, if downstream demand falls short of expectations, prices may revert to fluctuating around 8,350 CNY/ton.
