December’s Coking Coal Market Primarily Exhibits Weak Performance

December 29th, News

I. Price Trends

According to the commodity market analysis system: On December 29, 2025, the average price was 1442 CNY/ton. Currently, coking enterprises are on average incurring losses, but the operating rate remains high, and the overall market supply is sufficient. The profit recovery of steel mills is limited.

II. Market Analysis

Market Perspective: Currently, the coking coal market is experiencing sluggish sales and light trading activity. Downstream players are adopting a wait-and-see attitude, with weak willingness to stock up. On the demand side, as the steel market enters its seasonal downturn, the number of blast furnace maintenance operations has increased, leading to a decline in molten iron production and weakening support for coking coal demand. Meanwhile, on the supply side, high import volumes of coking coal continue to provide a steady replenishment to the Chinese market.

Demand Side: In December, the demand for coke in the market was generally moderate and tended to weaken, mainly due to the seasonal downturn in the steel market and the increase in maintenance shutdowns at steel mills. As a result, molten iron production declined, significantly reducing the intrinsic demand support for coke. Specifically, weak terminal demand led to slim profit margins for steel mills, slowing down their purchasing pace and reducing speculative demand in the market. Consequently, coke prices entered a downward trend. According to data, the average daily output of molten iron in December remained flat month-on-month; however, terminal demand showed no signs of improvement, and the intrinsic demand support for coke continued to weaken.

Price-wise: Coking coal has undergone three rounds of price adjustments, with cumulative price decreases ranging from 150 to 165 CNY per ton. For instance, in the Shanxi region, the mainstream quoted prices for quasi-first-grade dry-quenched coke are around 1,535 to 1,615 CNY per ton.

Supply side: Due to environmental factors and other reasons, the operating rates of coking enterprises in China have declined somewhat, but the overall supply remains relatively loose. The decline in coking coal prices has also led to a reduction in coke production costs.

III. Future Market Forecast

Coke analysts believe that in the short term, the pattern of weak cost and demand may continue, and coke prices still face downward pressure.