August 25th News
[Key Insight] Ethanol is in a clear upward trend in the short term, with the mean-reversion indicator rebounding across the board, sending a strong signal of further price increases. Coupled with rising overseas prices and marginal improvements in import and export supply-demand dynamics, the support at the price bottom continues to strengthen.
1. Average Difference Variation Table
| Average Difference Type | Today's Value (2026-08-24) | Yesterday's Value (2026-08-23) | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-day Average Difference (D5) | -3.56 | -5.33 | + |
| 10-day Average Difference (D10) | -5.77 | -5.89 | + |
| 20-day Average Difference (D20) | -20.34 | -21.62 | + |
2. Signal Status Judgment
Clearly rising
3. Trend Direction Conclusion
Clear Uptrend: The reason is that the directions of change for the three moving averages (5-day, 10-day, and 20-day) are completely consistent and positive compared to the previous day, meeting the hallmark signals of a clear uptrend. Combined with industry data, the ex-factory prices of modified ethanol in Brazil and the U.S. have risen month-on-month, while China’s ethanol import and export data show positive trends (import volume surged significantly, and export volume increased month-on-month). Following price adjustments by some enterprises, transactions driven by genuine demand have become more active, strengthening the overall price support at the bottom and reinforcing the upward trend.
4. Positional Spatial Reference
Ethanol prices in China over the 60-day and 3-month cycles are at low levels, with limited room for further decline; the 1-year cycle price is at a moderate to low level, indicating some potential for an increase.
5. Trend Chart Display
6. Upstream and Downstream Products
Upstream Commodities: Methyl acetate, cassava, methyl acetate, molasses, wheat, corn, ethylene
Downstream Products: Methyl ethyl carbonate, composite carbon sources, ethyl formate, ethyl methacrylate, isophorone, diethylene glycol ethyl ether, hydroxylamine sulfate, ethylene glycol ethyl ether acetate, diethyl oxalate, monoethanolamine, diethyl malonate, triethylamine, ethyl acrylate, ethyl acetate, ethylamine, diethyl ether, ethanol-gasoline, liquor, acetaldehyde
7. Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
