August 26th News
The current Chinese toluene market is supported by tight spot supply, maintaining a strong price trend. On August 25, the mainstream quotation in the East China region rose to 7,300-7,350 CNY/ton. However, downstream demand is mainly for restocking essentials, and traders are cautious about chasing higher prices, leading to insufficient momentum for continuous price increases. Using the average difference analysis method, it can be determined that the current toluene market is in a stagnation warning phase, and it is likely to maintain a high-level fluctuation trend in the short term, with limited upward potential.
I. Table of Mean Difference Changes
| Indicator | Value as of August 25, 2026 | Value as of August 24, 2026 | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-day average difference (D5) | 137.01 | 71.67 | + |
| 10-day average difference (D10) | 157.33 | 166.67 | - |
| 20-day average difference (D20) | 239.00 | 223.33 | + |
II. Signal Status Determination
The current average difference change combination is (+, -, +), which belongs to a stagflation warning (bearish) signal.
III. Conclusion on Trend Direction
The current toluene price trend in China is fluctuating.
Reason: The changes in the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day periods do not consistently move in the same direction as the previous day, which does not meet the criteria for a clear upward or downward trend. Therefore, it is judged to be a fluctuating trend. From a fundamental perspective, the tight supply of spot goods in China provides support at the bottom, but the downstream demand is mainly driven by necessity, and there is insufficient willingness to chase higher prices, which also supports the judgment of high-level fluctuations.
IV. Positional Spatial Reference
In the 60-day and 3-month cycles, the toluene price in China is at the 5th level (high), with limited room for further short-term increases; in the 1-year cycle, the price is at the 3rd level (medium), with relatively balanced long-term fluctuation space.
Five, Fundamental Dynamics
Import and export data: In July 2026, China imported 0.16 tons of toluene, with an import value of US$0.19 million, down 72.71% month-on-month. Meanwhile, China exported 223,664.40 tons of toluene, generating an export value of US$20,542.98 million, a decrease of 2.21% month-on-month. This further intensifies the tight spot supply situation in China amid the continued low import trend.
Regional Quotes: On August 25, the mainstream spot price range for toluene in the East China region was between 7,300 and 7,350 CNY per ton, up 70 CNY per ton from the previous trading day. On August 24, Sinopec South China Company set its listed price for toluene at 7,200 CNY per ton.
Six, Display of Trend Charts
VII. Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
