September 10th News
This butadiene spot price analysis is based on the latest publicly available data as of September 9, 2026, using mean difference method tools for assessment. The current butadiene price is signaling a stagnation warning (bearish), with a short-term trend of fluctuation. The price is at a high point in the recent 60-day and 3-month cycles, and at a mid-high level in the 1-year cycle, indicating limited room for further increases. The competition between supply and demand is intensifying, and there is a need to be cautious about the risk of price correction due to insufficient downstream purchasing intentions in China.
1. Mean Difference Variation Table
| Average Difference Type | Today's Value (2026.9.9) | Yesterday's Value (2026.9.8) | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-day Average Difference (D5) | 273.33 | 206.66 | + |
| 10-day Average Difference (D10) | 290.00 | 393.34 | - |
| 20-day Average Difference (D20) | 853.34 | 773.33 | + |
2. Signal Status Judgment
The current three deviation change direction combinations are (+, -, +), which match the characteristics of a stagflation warning (bearish) signal in China.
3. Trend Direction Conclusion
The current trend in butadiene prices in China is fluctuating. The reason for this judgment is that the changes in the three averages compared to the previous day are not entirely consistent, and there has been no clear trend signal where all three are either entirely positive or entirely negative, which aligns with the criteria for a fluctuating trend.
4. Position Space Reference
Butadiene prices are in the 5th tier (high) for 60-day and 3-month periods, and in the 4th tier (upper-middle) for the past year. With prices already in the high range, there is limited room for further increases, and there is pressure for a temporary correction.
5. Spot Market Dynamics
Chinese refinery quotes: On September 9, 2026, Sinopec's butadiene prices in East China, North China, and Central China were 14,900 CNY/ton, while the price in South China was 14,800 CNY/ton, with refineries showing a strong intention to maintain prices; on the same day, Yantai Wanhua's external sales base price for 140 tons was 15,000 CNY/ton, and Satellite Chemical's starting auction price for 336 tons of external sales was 14,500 CNY/ton.
Supply-and-demand characteristics: The strengthening of upstream crude oil prices is supporting the spot market sentiment, and refineries are showing a strong willingness to hold prices. However, downstream demand has generally declined, with insufficient purchasing intentions. There is a clear balancing act between supply and demand, and the spot market continued to fluctuate at high levels on September 9.
International Market: On September 7, Asian butadiene prices were quoted at $1,515–$1,523 per ton FOB Korea and $1,595–$1,603 per ton CFR China; in Europe, butadiene prices closed at $1,200–$1,208 per ton FOB Rotterdam and €1,105–€1,113 per ton FD Northwest Europe. The international market has shown an upward trend recently.
6. Trend Chart Display
7. Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
