September 11th News
This analysis based on the method of mean difference for toluene spot price trends shows that as of September 10, 2026, the mean differences for the three cycles of toluene have all increased compared to the previous day, indicating a clear short-term upward trend. However, the price is at a high point in the short cycle and at a relatively high level over the past year. Combined with the insufficient willingness of downstream rigid demand procurement to chase higher prices, there is significant resistance to further increases. It is necessary to closely monitor crude oil price fluctuations and the release of downstream demand.
I. Table of Mean Difference Changes
| Average Difference Type | Value as of September 10, 2026 (CNY/ton) | Value as of September 9, 2026 (CNY/ton) | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-day Average Difference (D5) | 480.66 | 225.33 | + |
| 10-day Average Difference (D10) | 124.34 | 114.00 | + |
| 20-day Average Difference (D20) | 315.16 | 264.50 | + |
II. Signal State Determination
The current signal is: a clear bullish signal.
III. Conclusion on Trend Direction
The price trend is clearly rising, reason: the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day average differences compared to the previous day are all in the same direction, and all three average difference values are positive, meeting the criteria for a clear upward trend according to the average difference method.
IV. Positional Spatial Reference
Toluene is at a high price level in the 60-day cycle, at a high price level in the 3-month cycle, and at a medium-high price level in the 1-year cycle. The current price is in a relatively high range, with limited room for further increases.
5. Trend Chart Display
Six, Fundamental Reference
Recently, the rise in crude oil prices coupled with an increase in aromatics futures has bolstered overall market sentiment in the aromatics sector. The tight supply of toluene spot goods in China has further boosted market sentiment; however, downstream customers are still maintaining a pace of purchasing according to demand, showing insufficient willingness to chase higher prices, and there is currently some resistance to further price increases.
VII. Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
