September 22 report:
[Key Takeaway] In the short term, ethanol prices are expected to fluctuate with a bullish bias, showing a strong rebound.
【Data Explanation】 The latest available data is up to September 21, 2026. It is recommended to refer to real-time data.
1. Mean Difference Variation Table
| Type of Average Difference | Today’s Value (September 21, 2026) | Yesterday’s Value (September 20, 2026) | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day Average Difference | 5.34 | 1.11 | + |
| 10-Day Average Difference | 2.94 | 1.55 | + |
| 20-Day Average Difference | 22.91 | 26.03 | - |
2. Signal Status Judgment
Currently, this is a strong rebound signal (leaning bullish, of a rebound nature).
3. Trend Direction Conclusion
The short-term trend is choppy but tilted to the upside. Reasons: The directional changes in the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages are not entirely consistent with the previous day, meeting the oscillation‑detection criteria of the moving‑average method; moreover, the 5-day and 10-day moving averages are both trending higher, indicating strong near‑term upward momentum. Coupled with CNOOC Guangxi’s 200,000‑ton ethanol plant maintenance and a sharp month‑over‑month drop of 93.79% in ethanol import volumes for August 2026, supply‑side support is evident, resulting in an overall robust rebound.
4. Positional Space Reference
The 1-year cycle price of ethanol is in the 3rd tier (median range) out of 5 tiers, while the 60-day cycle is in the 5th tier (high range). The short-term rapid increase is limited, but there is still room for price recovery in the medium to long term.
5. Trend Chart Display
6. Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
