September 28 report:
[Key Takeaway] Based on the latest spot price data, this report employs the mean‑difference method to show that the current urea market is in a strong rebound phase characterized by volatile yet bullish dynamics. In the short to medium term, prices remain at relatively low levels with limited downside potential, while over the medium to long term, prices are positioned around the midpoint, with balanced upside and downside risks. This analysis can serve as a valuable reference for participants across the urea industry chain.
Data Validity Explanation
The most recent available data is up to September 27, 2026, and it is recommended to refer to real-time data.
1. Average Difference Variation Table
| Mean Difference Indicator | (2026.09.27) | (2026.09.26) | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day Mean Difference (D5) | 0 | -5 | + |
| 10-Day Mean Difference (D10) | -19.5 | -20.25 | + |
| 20-Day Mean Difference (D20) | -19.13 | -16.13 | - |
2. Signal status determination
Three differences all changed direction compared to the previous day in the combination of (+, +, -), corresponding to a strong rebound (bullish, rebound nature) signal.
3. Trend Direction Conclusion
The current price trend is oscillating (with a bullish rebound). Reason: The direction of change in the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving average differences from the previous day is not entirely consistent, meeting the criteria for an oscillating trend. Additionally, the combination of the moving average differences indicates a strong bullish rebound, suggesting a stronger short-term trend.
4. Positional Spatial Reference
Over a 60-day/3-month period, the price is in the second tier (mid-to-low range), suggesting limited downside in the near to medium term.
1 year cycle price is in the 3rd tier (median), with relatively balanced potential for increase and decrease in the medium to long term.
5. Trend chart display
6. Industry Chain Reference
Upstream: anthracite, liquid ammonia, liquefied natural gas;
Downstream: sodium bromide, tert-butylamine, propylene carbonate, aminosulfonic acid, compound fertilizer, melamine, wheat, corn, etc.
Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
