86% Price Increase Dominates Screens! Acrylic Acid Sees an "Geopolitical" Epic Surge in China

March 9 news

I. Core Market Trends:

This week (March 1-9, 2026), the acrylic acid market experienced an epic surge, with the characteristics of the market trend being significantly driven by the escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East. According to monitoring data, the price of acrylic acid soared from 6,350 CNY per ton at the beginning of the month, reaching 11,917 CNY per ton for premium products in East China by March 9th. The single-week price increase exceeded 86%, setting a new high for the year and even the recent period, making it the leading variety in terms of price increase in the chemical sector.

From the trend chart, the price showed a slow climbing trend from March 1st to 5th, gradually rising from 6350 CNY/ton to the 7000 CNY/ton range; from March 6th to 8th, the price entered an accelerated increase phase, with single-day price increases frequently exceeding 1000 yuan; on March 9th, there was a pulse-like jump, directly breaking through the 11900 CNY/ton threshold, and the price curve presented a nearly vertical steep upward shape, thoroughly activating market sentiment and price elasticity.

II. Deep-rooted Drivers: Triple Logic Underpinning Price Increases

Cost Side: The escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East has directly driven up international oil prices, causing Brent crude oil prices to rebound rapidly to a range of $65–75 per barrel. As the Strait of Hormuz serves as a critical global energy transit route, heightened risks to navigation have intensified market concerns about energy supply. Simultaneously, the cost of propylene—the key raw material for acrylic acid—has also risen sharply. Coupled with worries over propane supplies from the Middle East and rising logistics costs, the raw-material side is providing strong, rigid support for acrylic acid prices, significantly enhancing the efficiency of cost pass-through.

Supply Side: Although the Middle East is not a major global producer of acrylic acid (with a capacity of only 400,000 to 450,000 tons per year, accounting for less than 5% of global capacity), as a core supply region for energy and chemical raw materials, its instability directly affects the logistics and supply of upstream raw materials such as propylene and LPG. The market is concerned that restrictions on navigation through the Strait of Hormuz could lead to a sharp increase in international transportation costs and a decrease in efficiency for fuel and chemical raw materials, further intensifying cost pressure on Chinese acrylic acid companies. This would create a chain reaction of "raw material price increases - tightening expectations - rising prices."

Demand Side: Under the backdrop of persistently rising prices and mounting cost pressures, mid- and downstream enterprises have begun engaging in panic-driven stockpiling. Some companies are proactively building up inventories to ensure production stability, leading to a tightening of spot supply in the market. Meanwhile, investor sentiment has been heavily concentrated on the chemical commodities sector, and acrylic acid—a commodity with relatively high price-increase elasticity—has become a hotly sought-after asset, further amplifying price increases. Moreover, China’s acrylic acid industry as a whole maintains steady operating rates and boasts ample supply; this round of price hikes is not driven by a contraction in supply but rather by the combined effect of rising costs and heightened investor sentiment.

III. Outlook for the Future Market:

1. With tensions easing and shipping lanes back to normal, oil prices are ranging between $65 and $75 per barrel. Acrylic acid experienced a short-term surge followed by volatile fluctuations and is now seeing its price increase narrow to 5%-10%, returning to a range of 10,000–11,000 CNY per ton. The upward trend is expected to last for 2–4 weeks.

2. The strait will be temporarily closed for 1-2 weeks, and oil prices will range from $80 to $90 per barrel. Prices are expected to continue rising by 15%-25% and break through 12,000 CNY per ton, with the strong cycle extending to 4-8 weeks.

3. The prolonged conflict has led to energy disruptions lasting over one month, pushing oil prices above $90 per barrel. Price increases have exceeded 30%, and the duration of this upward trend has extended to 3–6 months (though this scenario is relatively unlikely).

V. Summary

This week's acrylic acid market trend is a typical "geopolitical event-driven" surge, with the price increase far exceeding regular cyclical fluctuations, primarily due to rising energy costs and market sentiment. In the short term, prices will still be dominated by geopolitical situations and oil price trends, maintaining a high level of volatility. In the medium to long term, if geopolitical tensions ease, prices may gradually return to fundamental levels, and it is necessary to be cautious of the risk of a correction due to weak demand from downstream. For companies in the industry chain, it is essential to reasonably plan inventory and procurement rhythms to avoid the risks of short-term price fluctuations. Investors, on the other hand, can focus on tracking crude oil prices, raw material costs, and changes in corporate profitability to seize opportunities in the phased market.