This analysis is based on the latest MIBK spot average price data as of September 14, 2026, using the method of mean difference to determine: the current MIBK is in a strong consolidation (bullish) fluctuation pattern, with prices in the high range over the past year. The upstream raw material support is solid, and there is still potential for high-level operation in the short term, but the upside space is limited. Industry participants should closely monitor the supply and demand changes and raw material price fluctuations in the upstream and downstream sectors.
I. Data Description
The latest available MIBK spot data is up to September 14, 2026. It is recommended to refer to real-time data.
II. Table of Mean Difference Changes
| Average Difference Indicator | Value as of Sep 14, 2026 (CNY/ton) | Value as of Sep 13, 2026 (CNY/ton) | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-day Average Difference (D5) | 160.00 | 753.33 | - |
| 10-day Average Difference (D10) | 1340.00 | 1066.67 | + |
| 20-day Average Difference (D20) | 1055.83 | 960.83 | + |
Three, Signal Status Judgment
The current three deviation change direction combinations are (－, ＋, ＋), which match the characteristics of a strong consolidation (bullish) signal in China.
IV. Conclusion on Trend Direction
The current MIBK price trend is oscillating (with a bullish bias). The rationale for this judgment is that the directions of the three average differences compared to the previous day are not entirely consistent, meeting the criteria for an oscillating trend. Among them, the short-term 5-day average difference has slightly decreased, but the medium- and long-term 10-day and 20-day average differences continue to widen, indicating strong support for a long-term upward trend. Overall, it presents a strong consolidation pattern.
V. Positional Spatial Reference
The prices for MIBK with 60-day, 3-month, and 1-year cycles are all in the 5th tier (high level, corresponding to the top 20% price range within each cycle), leaving limited room for further increases. Investors should be vigilant about the risk of a pullback from these high levels.
6. Price Trend Chart for the Past Year
7. Industry Chain Reference
The core upstream products of MIBK are diacetone alcohol, isopropyl alcohol, and acetone. Currently, the price of upstream isopropyl alcohol is also at a high level seen over the past year, providing strong cost support for MIBK. Downstream applications primarily include wax removers, extractants, anti-aging agents, and solvents. Downstream demand is mainly driven by rigid procurement, and there are currently no clear signals of significant demand growth.
Eight, Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
