September 17th News
The current natural rubber spot market is in a phase of fluctuation and consolidation, with signals indicating a weak rebound and a bearish trend. The 1-year cycle price is at a high level, coupled with the concentrated start of a price increase cycle by downstream tire companies, which is passing on cost pressures. In the short term, the upward space for natural rubber prices is limited, and the overall trend will be mainly characterized by range-bound fluctuations.
I. Data Description
The latest available data is up to September 16, 2026, and it is recommended to refer to real-time data.
II. Table of Mean Difference Changes
| Mean Difference Indicator | Today (2026.9.16) Value | Yesterday (2026.9.15) Value | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-day Mean Difference (D5) | -165.00 | -318.34 | + |
| 10-day Mean Difference (D10) | -135.00 | -32.49 | - |
| 20-day Mean Difference (D20) | 287.50 | 287.50 | No Change |
III. Signal Status Determination
The directions of change in the three divided differences are not entirely consistent, forming an approximate combination of (+, -, -) within the oscillation range. The signal indicates a weak rebound (leaning bearish).
IV. Conclusion on Trend Direction
The current price trend is oscillating, reason: the 5-day average difference has increased compared to yesterday, the 10-day average difference has decreased compared to yesterday, and the 20-day average difference is the same as yesterday. The directions of change for these three indicators are not completely consistent, which does not meet the criteria for a clear signal of increase or decrease, thus it is determined to be an oscillating trend.
Five, Position and Spatial Reference
Natural rubber 1-year cycle price is in the 5th tier (high), with limited room for increase; 60-day and 3-month cycle prices are both at a medium-high level, with some cost support for a downward trend.
VI. Fundamental Reference
From September 15 to 16, 2026, leading Chinese tire companies such as Zhongce and Sailun will collectively issue price increase notices, announcing across-the-board price hikes for all tire categories. Several companies indicated that the current price increases still fall short of covering costs, and there is an expectation of further price adjustments in October. Downstream demand for tires remains somewhat supportive of natural rubber prices, but at elevated price levels, there is insufficient momentum for additional price increases.
7. Trend Chart Display
Eight, Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
