Recently, the spot price of DOP in China has been strongly supported by the cost end of upstream 2-ethylhexanol and phthalic anhydride, with major manufacturers continuously raising their quotes. The current price is at a high point in the nearly one-year cycle. According to the average difference indicator, the current DOP price has entered a moderate correction phase, with a high probability of short-term high-level fluctuations. The room for further increases is limited, and there is a need to be cautious of the risk of a pullback from the high levels.
I. Table of Mean Difference Changes
| Average Difference Type | Value on 2026-09-16 | Value on 2026-09-15 | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-day Average Difference (D5) | 108.34 | 150 | - |
| 10-day Average Difference (D10) | 162.5 | 192.5 | - |
| 20-day Average Difference (D20) | 297.5 | 276.25 | + |
II. Signal State Determination
The current combination of mean differences is (-, -, +), indicating a moderate pullback (bearish, with a corrective nature) signal.
III. Trend Direction Conclusions
The current DOP price trend is oscillating. Reason: The directions of the three mean differences compared to the previous day are not entirely consistent, which does not meet the criteria for a clear upward or downward trend. This aligns with the characteristics of an oscillating signal indicating a mild pullback. In the short term, the price has stabilized and is experiencing slight pressure to correct, but there is still support from the cost side for a long-term upward momentum.
IV. Positional Spatial Reference
Prices for the 60-day, 3-month, and 1-year cycles are all at the 5th tier (high level), with limited room for further increases and an elevated risk of a pullback from these high levels.
V. Market Dynamics Reference
Manufacturer prices: On September 15, Shengfeng Chemical in Shandong, China, increased its DOP quote by 100 CNY/ton to 10,605 CNY/ton; Yimei De Chemical in Dongying, China, increased its DOP quote by 300 CNY/ton to 10,650 CNY/ton; Liancheng Chemical in Zhenjiang, China, increased its DOP quote by 50 CNY/ton to 10,750 CNY/ton. On September 16, Liancheng Chemical in Zhenjiang, China, kept its DOP quote stable.
Supply chain support: The current prices of upstream isooctanol and phthalic anhydride in China are both at their highest levels in nearly one year, providing strong cost support for DOP prices.
VI. Price Trend Chart for the Past Year
VII. Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
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