September 30th News
I. Price Trends
According to the monitored data, as of September 30, the average price of premium industrial-grade cyclohexane in China was 6,833 CNY per ton. For the entire month of September, the price remained at a low level for the year (the annual range is 6,167-8,000 CNY per ton, with a median of 7,083 CNY per ton). The end-of-month price of 6,833 CNY per ton is about 1,167 CNY per ton lower than the annual high, indicating some potential for a rebound, but this is constrained by downstream demand.
2. Market Analysis
Upstream Costs: The direct raw material is pure benzene. As of September 28, the average price in East China stood at RMB 9,545 per ton, up 20.77% from the previous month. On September 29, Sinopec raised its listed price by RMB 300 to RMB 10,200 per ton, while spot prices at Jiangsu ports briefly surged to RMB 11,000 per ton. Drivers include disruptions to navigation through the Strait of Hormuz and U.S.-Iran tensions, which have pushed oil prices higher. Meanwhile, port inventories of pure benzene in Jiangsu have fallen to a low of around 36,000 tons, and pre-holiday restocking has further supported the market, keeping benzene prices “decoupled from crude oil and holding at elevated levels.”
Supply Side: Overall, the operation rate of China's cyclohexane plants is at 62-66%, which is at a low to medium level. For upstream benzene: on 9/24, the operating rate of petroleum benzene was 71.8%, and that of hydrogenated benzene was 56.24% (a decrease of 3.18 percentage points from the previous period). The weekly production of pure benzene was 506,500 tons. The overall supply of raw materials has recovered, but the production of hydrogenated benzene has declined due to losses and a tight supply of crude benzene. Plant dynamics (September maintenance and resumption of production): Hualu Hengsheng: some units were shut down for maintenance starting from 9/8 and resumed normal production on 9/29—this is the most direct marginal change in September. The earlier maintenance caused a shortage of spot supply in the region. Shanxi Orchid: a 20,000-ton/year by-product unit has been shut down since July. The maintenance of the cyclohexanone plant in Shandong affected the external sales of by-product cyclohexane, leading to a tight regional spot supply and strong price-holding intentions among suppliers. In late September, the maintenance at Hualu Hengsheng, combined with pre-holiday inventory replenishment, resulted in a "tight supply and limited circulation" in the market, which became one of the key supports for the price increase on 9/28.
Downstream Demand: Downstream support: Prices are high, but demand is weak and transmission is limited. Cyclohexanone (main intermediate): East China 10,500–10,600 CNY/ton, up 53.62% year-on-year, with high volatility. Caprolactam (Nylon 6): 14,145 CNY/ton, up 62.71% year-on-year, also at a high level. BASF has again raised the price of caprolactam/PA6 in North America starting from September. Adipic acid (Nylon 66) was around 8,500 CNY/ton at the end of August, up 1.49% month-on-month, driven by the rise in benzene prices.
3. Future Market Prediction
Cyclohexane analysts believe that cyclohexane is currently trading in a relatively strong range, caught between cost‑driven support—due to high benzene prices—and weak demand—reflected in low downstream operating rates. There is room for a catch‑up rally at lower price levels, while upside potential hinges on trends in benzene and crude oil prices. We expect cyclohexane prices to fluctuate in the fourth quarter within the 6,500–8,000 CNY/ton range.
