September 18th News
I. Price Trends
According to the commodity market analysis system: On September 18, 2026, this week is a critical turning point in the current coke price increase cycle—the fifth round of spot price increases has been fully implemented, but futures have weakened first, showing a clear divergence between spot and futures markets.
II. Market Analysis
Market Trading: Since late August, prices have continuously increased. As of September 11, the fifth round of increases was implemented, with wet quenched coke up by 450 CNY/ton and dry quenched coke up by 495 CNY/ton, a price increase of about 27%. The mainstream price for quasi-first grade dry quenched coke is around 2310 CNY/ton, with a cumulative price increase of about 36% for the year. Price Levels: The ex-factory tax-inclusive price for quasi-first grade coke in Lüliang is approximately 2215 CNY/ton, the FOB price at Rizhao Port is 2280 CNY/ton, and the delivered price for second-grade coke to Tangshan (including the cumulative five rounds) is 2270 CNY/ton. Coking coal prices have started to decline from their highs, and policy shifts have undermined the bullish foundation. Cost remains the core factor in coke pricing, but this week, there were key signals indicating a shift from strength to weakness.
Supply side: Marginal improvement in supply: Some mines in Shanxi have resumed production, but "resumption of production does not mean resumption of full capacity," with the capacity utilization rate dropping to 69.7% at one point, and the average daily raw coal output at 1,565,000 tons. In Shanxi, 75 coal mines remain shut down, with a total capacity of 72,900,000 tons, and the structural shortage of high-quality low-sulfur main coking coal remains unchanged.
Downstream Demand Steel mills are deeply in the red, with the risk of negative feedback concentrated on the demand side, which is the biggest contradiction in the coke market for this period — the rigid demand still exists, but the profit statement can no longer bear higher costs.
III. Future Market Forecast
Coke analysts believe: Before the holiday, prices are holding at high levels, and after the holiday, be cautious of the first round of price reductions.
