September 15 news
Since September, the EVA market in China has been on a fluctuating upward trend, with leading petrochemical plants repeatedly increasing factory prices by 300-700 CNY per ton in single adjustments. Traders are holding back from selling low-priced stocks, and overall, both petrochemical plants and social inventories are at low levels. According to data, as of September 15, the benchmark price of EVA was 11,016 CNY per ton, an increase of 6.27% from 10,366 CNY per ton at the beginning of the month.
Brent crude oil has been fluctuating at high levels; CFR ethylene to Northeast Asia stands at USD 1,147.5 per ton, while vinyl acetate in East China is trading at RMB 7,550–7,775 per ton. The cost of EVA raw materials is providing strong support.
Supply-side multiple EVA units in China are undergoing concentrated maintenance and grade switching, causing the overall operating rate of the industry to fall back to 65%-70%; the output of photovoltaic-grade particles has decreased, while the supply of foaming-grade materials is relatively abundant. The increase in imports of high-end photovoltaic materials arriving at Chinese ports is limited, and the price differences among categories are significant.
The photovoltaic film industry's operating rate in September slightly decreased to 78%. The demand for EVA components is mainly driven by rigid demand procurement. The inventory of film factories is within a reasonable range, and there is no large-scale restocking at present. Traditional foam, shoe materials, and hot melt adhesives are still in the off-season, with weak terminal orders, maintaining a just-in-time procurement approach. Overall, the demand side is suppressing the increase in EVA prices.
EVA prices have recently risen rapidly, with the spot price standing above the 5/10/20/30/60-day moving averages. The short, medium, and long-term moving averages have shifted from resistance to support, showing a bullish alignment. In the short term, the price has broken through upward, releasing rebound momentum; however, after a rapid short-term rise, there is a need for a pullback to consolidate gains. It is necessary to observe the effectiveness of the support provided by the moving averages below and to continuously monitor whether the trading volume can sustain, in order to judge the sustainability of this round of rebound.
Looking ahead, EVA is expected to maintain a strong fluctuation in the short term, but the upside is limited. With low inventory and cost support, petrochemical companies in China have a strong desire to keep prices firm; however, traditional downstream sectors are unlikely to recover quickly, and film manufacturers are being cautious with their purchases, lacking the impetus to chase higher prices.
