September 23rd News
In late September 2026, the diesel market in China showed a regional divergence. On September 22, the price of diesel from refineries in the northeastern region rose to 9100-9200 CNY/ton, while the prices in the northwestern region remained stable at 8800-8900 CNY/ton. Recently, international crude oil futures have been continuously adjusting downward, but the tight supply and demand for diesel overseas have supported the prices at a high level. The current differential signals indicate that diesel is in a weak rebound and a bearish oscillation pattern, with prices at a high level over the past year, leaving limited room for further increases.
The latest available data is up to September 22, 2026. It is recommended to refer to real-time data.
1. Mean Difference Variation Table
| Type of Average Difference | Today’s Value (2026.09.22) | Yesterday’s Value (2026.09.21) | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day Average Difference (D5) | 78.34 | 56.60 | + |
| 10-Day Average Difference (D10) | -0.82 | 4.92 | - |
| 20-Day Average Difference (D20) | 179.91 | 192.95 | - |
2. Signal Status Determination
The current average difference change combination is (+, -, -), which belongs to a weak rebound (bearish) signal.
3. Trend Direction Conclusion
The current price trend is fluctuating.
Reason: The three second-order differences did not all change in the same direction as the previous day, meeting the criteria for a ranging market; the signal indicates a weak, bearish rebound.
4. Position Space Reference
Diesel prices are in the top 20% range across the 60-day, 3-month, and 1-year cycles (Tier 5 / high end), leaving limited room for further increases.
5. Trend chart display
6. Recent Fundamental References
Cost side: On September 21, the November WTI crude oil futures contract settled at $92.37 per barrel, down 3.9%; the December Brent crude oil futures contract settled at $103.87 per barrel, down 3.1%. The continued pullback in crude oil prices has weakened cost support for refined oil products.
Overseas supply and demand: The average U.S. diesel price has risen to $6.505 per gallon, surpassing its 2022 record high; in France, diesel prices have surged to €2.38 per liter, just 1% below their all-time peak. Meanwhile, 11% of local gas stations are experiencing diesel shortages, and the EU’s upcoming fuel tax relief measures could put downward pressure on future diesel prices.
China spot: On September 22, the diesel offer from independent refineries in the northeast region was 9,100-9,200 CNY/ton, up 200 CNY/ton from the previous day; the diesel offer from independent refineries in the northwest region remained stable at 8,800-8,900 CNY/ton.
Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
