October 28th, news
This monitoring data is up to October 27, 2026. Based on the mean difference analysis framework, the current diesel price is in a fluctuating trend, with a signal of moderate correction (bearish, corrective nature). The 60-day, 3-month, and 1-year cycle prices are all in the high range. In the short term, the trend is supported by the rising quotations from Chinese local refineries, making it relatively strong. In the medium to long term, attention should be paid to the pressure of correction brought about by the implementation of Russian diesel supply, the release of U.S. diesel reserves, and the decline in EU fuel consumption.
I. Table of Finite Differences
| Mean Difference Indicator | Value as of October 27, 2026 (CNY/ton) | Value as of October 26, 2026 (CNY/ton) | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day Mean Difference (D5) | 18.34 | 36.51 | - |
| 10-Day Mean Difference (D10) | 67.69 | 80.75 | - |
| 20-Day Mean Difference (D20) | 136.14 | 116.53 | + |
II. Signal State Determination
The current signal is a mild correction (bearish, corrective in nature).
III. Conclusions on Trend Directions
The current trend of diesel prices is fluctuating. The reason for this judgment is that the change directions of the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day average differences compared to the previous day are (-, -, +). The movement directions of these three types of average differences are not completely consistent, which meets the criteria for a fluctuating trend according to the average difference method. The retracement attribute is slightly bearish.
Fundamental support: From October 22 to 27, the overall diesel quotes from independent refineries in China rose. In the northeast region, diesel prices increased from 9,600-9,700 CNY/ton to 9,800-9,900 CNY/ton, and in the northwest region, they increased from 9,200-9,300 CNY/ton to 9,400-9,500 CNY/ton. The overall strength of international crude oil prices in October provided support for short-term prices; however, the gradual implementation of Russia's diesel supply to the U.S. and a significant decline in diesel sales in the EU in September compared to the same period last year have put pressure on medium- to long-term prices.
Industry chain reference: Upstream related products to diesel include fuel oil and crude oil, while downstream related products include methanol and diesel. Crude oil price fluctuations carry a relatively high weighting in terms of their impact on diesel costs.
IV. Positional Spatial Reference
Prices across the 60-day, 3-month, and 1-year timeframes are all in the fifth tier (high range), with limited upside potential and clear downward pressure over the medium to long term.
Five, the price trend chart of the past 1 year in China
VI. Data Notes and Risk Disclosure
The latest available data is up to October 27, 2026. It is recommended to refer to real-time data.
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
