October 22nd report:
According to the SpotCom AI assistant, this daily report uses the average difference analysis framework to assess the trend of the 180CST fuel oil spot price. As of October 21, 2026, the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day average differences for the fuel oil spot price in China have all changed in the same positive direction compared to the previous day, indicating a clear upward trend. However, the current price is in the high range over the past year, limiting the potential for further increases. This information is provided for reference to relevant market entities in China.
I. Table of Finite Differences
| Average Difference Type | Value as of 2026-10-21 (CNY/ton) | Value as of 2026-10-20 (CNY/ton) | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day Average Difference | 112.50 | 32.50 | + |
| 10-Day Average Difference | 30.00 | 18.75 | + |
| 20-Day Average Difference | 12.50 | -1.88 | + |
II. Signal State Determination
The current situation clearly indicates a rising signal according to the mean difference method in China.
III. Conclusions on Trend Directions
The price trend is clearly upward. Reason: The change in direction of the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving average differences from the previous day is completely consistent, and all three current values are positive, meeting the criteria for a clear upward trend. From a fundamental support perspective, recent spot quotes for fuel oil in China have been continuously adjusted upwards. On October 21, the self-pickup prices for 180CST low-sulfur fuel oil in Ningbo and Qingdao regions of China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) were respectively increased by 50 CNY/ton and 100 CNY/ton compared to the previous trading day. The market trading atmosphere is strong, and with upstream crude oil prices at high levels, cost support is robust.
IV. Positional Spatial Reference
The current fuel oil price in China is at the 5th level (high) of a 1-year cycle, with limited room for further increase.
V. Trend Chart Display
Six, Data Explanation and Risk Warning
The most recent available data is up to October 21, 2026, and it is recommended to refer to real-time data.
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
