September 28 (Reuters), citing Kpler data, reported that crude oil exports from major Middle Eastern producers, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, Oman, Qatar and Kuwait, are expected to reach 12.8 million barrels per day (bpd) in September, the highest level since the conflict erupted in late February.
Saudi exports recover sharply
Saudi Arabia is one of the main contributors to the rebound in exports. Kpler estimates that Saudi crude oil exports in September will be about 5.4 million bpd, more than doubling in one month.
| Indicator | August | September forecast | February |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi crude oil exports | 2.446 million bpd | 5.4 million bpd | N/A |
| Ras Tanura port loadings | 929,000 bpd | 3.6 million bpd | 6.411 million bpd |
| Exports by major Middle Eastern oil producers | N/A | 12.8 million bpd | 18.8 million bpd |
Among these, crude loadings at Ras Tanura port in September are expected to reach 3.6 million bpd, an increase of about 2.67 million bpd from 929,000 bpd in August.
Saudi Arabia shifts more crude to Persian Gulf exports
The recovery in Saudi exports is directly related to adjustments in transport routes. On September 13, the Saudi East-West crude pipeline was attacked, affecting crude loadings at Yanbu port. Saudi Aramco subsequently increased crude loadings at eastern Persian Gulf ports, shifting part of its exports from the Red Sea route to Ras Tanura port and then shipping them to Asian markets via the Strait of Hormuz.
On September 20, Saudi Aramco loaded about 14 million barrels of crude onto seven very large crude carriers (VLCCs) at Ras Tanura port. Meanwhile, satellite tracking data show that Saudi crude oil transported through the Strait of Hormuz averaged about 2.9 million bpd in September, significantly higher than 700,000 bpd in August.
Middle Eastern crude exports through the Strait of Hormuz are expected to reach about 7.4 million bpd in September. Reuters said Saudi Arabia’s increased Persian Gulf exports were one of the important reasons for the recovery of crude transportation through this channel.
Iraqi exports also recovering
Iraq’s crude oil exports have also increased. In the week of September 13, a total of 22 tankers carrying about 42 million barrels of crude departed the Strait of Hormuz, with Saudi and Iraqi crude each accounting for about 43%. Among these cargoes, one VLCC loaded about 2 million barrels of Iraqi Basrah crude and later conducted a ship-to-ship transfer near Fujairah in the UAE.
Iranian exports remain nearly stalled
The regional export recovery is uneven, and Iranian crude oil exports remain affected by the U.S. maritime blockade. Since the United States reimposed a maritime blockade on Iran on July 14, no new Iranian crude cargoes have successfully passed through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s August crude and condensate loadings were only about 220,000 to 255,000 bpd, far below about 740,000 bpd in July and about 2 million bpd in March.
At present, Middle East crude oil exports are recovering from the low levels seen early in the conflict, and Saudi Arabia’s increased Persian Gulf exports are the most obvious source of incremental growth in this change. However, September’s 12.8 million bpd is still significantly below February’s 18.8 million bpd, and regional crude supply has not yet returned to pre-conflict levels.
