Storm! Crude Oil Fell 8%!

Recently, the global financial market encountered "Black Tuesday". On July 5, the three major U.S. stock indexes fell collectively at the opening and quickly fell by more than 1%. The Nasdaq fell 1.81%, the Dow fell 635 points, or 2.04%, and the S&P 500 fell 2.14%. Major central banks in Europe and the U.S. pledged to tighten monetary policy to rein in soaring inflation, raising fears of a recession in the world's major economies amid high energy prices.

At the same time, historically rare situations such as currency market madness, stock market slumps and crude oil "diving" were all "on the line", and many indexes hit new highs in several years. And the impact of this late-night storm is far more than what it seems on the surface, but it also means that the warning of recession has sounded!

The foreign exchange market is "crazy"! The stock market "collapsed"! Global stock markets fell across the board!

On the evening of July 5, the foreign exchange market became the absolute protagonist. The U.S. dollar index rose by 1.1% during the day, hitting a 20-year high, with a peak of 106.33, and there may be new highs in the future.

At the same time, the euro against the US dollar fell significantly again, and was reported at 1.0281 at 17:49 Beijing time, and the euro against the US dollar EUR/USD fell to a nearly 20-year low.

This is definitely a day that can be written into history for the foreign exchange market. Under the influence of the huge shock in the foreign exchange market, the stock market collapsed in an all-round way. All three major U.S. stock indexes fell, with the Dow and S&P 500 down more than 2%, and the Nasdaq down nearly 1%.

Investors' panic about economic recession also caused European stocks to suffer heavy losses. The three major European stock markets fell sharply by more than 2% on Tuesday. Among them, the London stock market in the United Kingdom fell by 2.86%, the Paris stock market in France fell by 2.68%, and the Frankfurt stock market in Germany fell by 2.68%. A drop of 2.91%. The Bank of England warned that the outlook for the U.K. and global economy has "deteriorated significantly", with further downside risks in the coming months.

Affected by this, the global commodity collective plummeted. Copper fell to a 17-month low and metals extended losses. Market confidence in industrial raw materials used in construction, new energy vehicles and other industries remains sluggish. Copper, widely regarded as an economic barometer, traded below $8,000 a tonne after the metal posted its worst quarterly performance since the 2008 financial crisis.

As economic recession fears hit the commodity market again, first the non-ferrous metal market and European stock markets fell sharply. Panic once again led the sell-off of risk assets, and the bull market pattern was further loosened.

Crude oil "panic"! Dropped 8.24%, and the chemical sector fell on a large scale

Compared with overseas stock market dynamics, chemical industry friends are more concerned about whether the chemical market will be affected? Look at the sharp decline in international crude oil and the greening of the chemical sector, and you will understand.

International oil prices plunged sharply on the 5th. As of the close, WTI August crude oil futures closed down $8.93, or 8.24%, to $99.50 per barrel, the deepest drop of $10.68 or 9.8% in the day, the biggest drop since March, since mid-May It fell below $100 for the first time since. ICE Brent crude oil futures for September ended down $10.73, or 9.45%, at $102.77 a barrel. The deepest drop in the day was $12.36 or 10.9%, approaching $101, the lowest in nearly two months since May 11.

Institutional analysis shows that if the global economy slows to recession levels this year, the price of Brent crude oil futures may fall to US$65 a barrel by the end of this year and further fall to US$45 next year. Dragged down by the slump in international oil prices, energy stocks generally fell on Tuesday. Halliburton fell by more than 8%, ConocoPhillips fell by nearly 7%, Marathon Oil fell by more than 6%, and oil giant Exxon Mobil fell 3.13%, the deepest It fell nearly 5% to a two-month low, Chevron fell 2.63%, and Occidental fell 2.2%.

On the morning of the 6th, the main indexes of the A-share market underwent a significant adjustment. After 10 o’clock, they dived, and the Shanghai Composite Index fell nearly 50 points during the session. The coal sector tumbled, with the sector falling by more than 6% during the session, and Jinkong Coal Industry and Shanxi Coal International hit the daily limit. Shares such as Orchid Science and Technology and Shanghai Energy once fell more than 8% during the session. Zhongman Petroleum, Xinchao Energy and CNOOC fell more than 8% during the session.

The influence of the crude oil market has undoubtedly also affected the trend of the chemical sector. The "green oil" of the chemical sector has lasted for a long time. In the early trading of July 6, the domestic futures market opened with a large area of green. As of 9:00, the main crude oil futures contracts fell by more than 8%, the main fuel oil and LU futures contracts both fell by more than 7%, and the main palm oil and rapeseed oil futures contracts both fell by more than 5%.

It is worth noting that, looking at the basis data between the spot and futures prices of various chemicals, it can be seen that pulp, pta, glass, methanol, urea, soda ash, staple fiber, PVC, polyethylene, polypropylene, ethylene glycol, Contracts of styrene and other varieties have a situation of "futures and currents inverted", that is, the futures price is lower than the spot price.

This kind of phenomenon that does not conform to the fundamentals is likely to occur at the end of the bull market, where there is a shortage of spot and speculative sentiment leads to a significant increase in the spot. However, when the futures price is expected to weaken, the increase is not as good as that of the spot. The reason may be that the market has long-term price expectations. It is pessimistic, which can also be seen from the recent slump in the prices of more than 100 chemical raw materials.

Whether it is the foreign exchange market, the stock market or the spot market, the entire sell-off is essentially inseparable from the anxiety caused by various force majeure such as the epidemic, but its impact is far more than that. If the above crazy situation continues to ferment, it will have an impact on the recovery and development of the petrochemical industry and the industrial chain of many industries. The low demand hidden by the low price is the most terrible.