September 29 report:
1. Mean Difference Change Table
| Mean Difference Indicator | Today’s Value (2026.09.28) | Yesterday’s Value (2026.09.27) | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day Mean Difference (D5) | -146.67 | 3.33 | - |
| 10-Day Mean Difference (D10) | -71.67 | -79.99 | + |
| 20-Day Mean Difference (D20) | -105.00 | -62.50 | - |
2. Signal Status Judgment
The three differences compared to the previous day show a trend of (-,+, -), indicating a rebound (bearish) in a volatile market.
3. Trend Direction Conclusion
The current PC price trend in China is volatile (with a bearish bias). Reason: The 5-day, 20-day moving average differences have decreased compared to yesterday, while the 10-day moving average difference has increased. The directions of these changes are not completely consistent, which does not meet the criteria for a clear upward or downward trend. This is considered a bearish bounce within a consolidation range.
4. Positional Spatial Reference
On the 60-day time frame, PC prices are in the third tier (mid-range); on the three-month time frame, they are in the fourth tier (upper-mid range); and on the one-year time frame, they are in the third tier (mid-range). In the short term, prices remain at a moderately high level with limited upside; over the medium to long term, they hover around the mid-range, leaving room for some further volatility.
5. Trend Chart Display
Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
2. Signal Status Determination
The current situation is a clear signal of decline.
3. Trend Direction Conclusion
The current trend in PC prices is a clear decline. Reason: The three moving averages—D5, D10, and D20—have all changed in the same direction as the previous day, all registering negative values, thereby satisfying the criterion for a clear downward trend under the moving-average method. Fundamental update: Currently, the Zhangzhou Chi Mei PC unit is operating with a single line, and the Sichuan Tianhua PC unit is operating at reduced capacity. Overall, the supply side is stable. Upstream bisphenol A and dimethyl carbonate are both at high prices, providing some support to PC costs, which may limit the extent of any potential price decrease.
4. Spatial Reference
60-day cycle: It is in the 4th tier (moderately high), with limited short-term upside potential and significant pressure for a pullback. * 3-month cycle: Currently at the 5th level (high range), with insufficient mid-term upward momentum. * 1 year cycle: in the 3rd tier (median), with some room for long-term fluctuation.
