September 29 report: Curve comparison chart
According to SpotCom data: The average price of LLDPE (7042) in China was 8,885 CNY/ton on September 1st and 9,351 CNY/ton on September 29th, an increase of 5.25%. The average price of LDPE (2426H) in China was 11,466 CNY/ton on September 1st and 12,200 CNY/ton on September 29th, an increase of 6.40%. The average price of HDPE (5000S) in China was 10,787 CNY/ton on September 1st and 10,562 CNY/ton on September 29th, a decrease of 2.09%.
In the first half of the month, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East pushed up crude oil and ethylene prices, while strong cost support served as the primary driver of this month’s price rally; in the latter half, oil prices edged lower, and the supporting momentum weakened marginally.
In the first and middle part of September, maintenance schedules were relatively tight and operating rates remained below historical levels, providing a floor for prices. In the latter half of the month, plants resumed operations one after another, driving a rebound in utilization rates; coupled with expectations of new capacity coming online, supply pressures gradually mounted.
"Golden September" peak season fell short of expectations: Although the overall operating rate of downstream industries in China increased slightly on a month-on-month basis, new orders for products such as agricultural films and pipes were weaker than in the same period in previous years. Downstream buyers generally purchased according to their needs, taking supplies as required, showing a clear resistance to high-priced raw materials and a weak willingness to chase higher prices.
The end-of-month rally in PE is a temporary correction driven by the renewed strengthening of crude oil prices amid resurging geopolitical risks in the Middle East, coupled with tight spot supply at month-end and pre‑National Day restocking demand. In the short term, polyethylene is expected to trade in a range at elevated levels.
