October 13th, according to news from China,
【Urea Spot Market Daily Report (October 13, 2026)】This report uses the mean difference method to analyze the trend of urea spot prices. Currently, all three mean differences for urea are negative, indicating a clear downward signal. The price is in the middle range of the past one-year cycle. Combined with factors such as continuous price reductions by leading Chinese manufacturers and overseas nitrogen fertilizer capacity contraction, there are both bullish and bearish influences. In the short term, there is a risk of further price declines that needs to be watched.
Data Explanation
The latest available urea market data in China is up to October 12, 2026. It is recommended to refer to real-time data for accuracy.
1. Mean Difference Change Table
| Average Difference Indicator | (2026.10.12) | (2026.10.11) | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day Average Difference (D5) | -10.00 | -4.50 | - |
| 10-Day Average Difference (D10) | -6.25 | -4.00 | - |
| 20-Day Average Difference (D20) | 5.37 | 7.00 | - |
2. Signal Status Determination
Clearly identify a downtrend signal
3. Trend Direction Conclusion
The price trend is clearly downward. Reason: The changes in the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving average differences compared to the previous day are all negative, which meets the criteria for a clear downward trend according to the moving average difference method. Additionally, China's leading urea producer, Hualu Hengsheng, has reduced its factory prices for two consecutive pricing cycles, indicating that the fundamentals also support a weaker price trend.
4. Position Space Reference
Urea 60-day, 3-month, and 1-year cycle prices are all at moderate levels, with relatively balanced potential for increases and decreases. There is currently no significant bottom support to limit the downside, nor is there any obvious top pressure to suppress further fluctuations.
5. Trend Chart Display
6. Relevant Fundamental References
Supply side: On October 8, 2026, Canadian fertilizer giant Nutrien announced the indefinite closure of its nitrogen fertilizer (ammonia/urea) operations at Point Lisas in Trinidad, leading to a contraction in overseas urea supply. Meanwhile, shareholders of China’s Lutianhua disclosed plans to reduce their stakes, though the impact on actual industry supply and demand is expected to be limited.
Ex-factory price: On October 12, 2026, the ex‑factory quote for medium‑grade granular urea from Hualu Hengsheng was RMB 1,725 per ton, down RMB 20 per ton cumulatively from October 10. Actual transactions are primarily based on individual negotiations.
Industry-chain dynamics: Upstream liquefied natural gas prices have remained elevated recently, providing strong cost support for urea production; downstream demand for compound fertilizers, wheat, corn, and other agricultural commodities currently shows no clear signs of a significant surge, with procurement driven primarily by rigid demand.
Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
