This analysis is based on the mean difference analysis framework, combined with the latest spot data as of October 21, 2026: The current phthalic anhydride spot price is showing a retracement (bullish), and in the short term, it is in a consolidation phase with a slight upward trend. The price has reached a high point in the nearly 1-year cycle, and the subsequent upside potential is limited. Upstream plant maintenance and tight supply are supporting the price, while the strength of downstream demand will be the key variable determining the price trend.
I. Table of Finite Differences
| Mean Difference Indicator | Value on October 21, 2026 | Value on October 20, 2026 | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day Mean Difference (D5) | -50 | -73.33 | + |
| 10-Day Mean Difference (D10) | 76.67 | 135 | - |
| 20-Day Mean Difference (D20) | 252.5 | 247.5 | + |
Note: The most recent data available as of October 21, 2026; real-time data is recommended.
II. Signal State Determination
Three differences in the change direction are combined as (+, -, +), which conforms to the characteristics of a retracement (bullish) signal.
III. Conclusion on Trend Direction
The current phthalic anhydride price trend in China is oscillating (with a bullish bias). Reason: The direction of change in the three averages compared to the previous day is not entirely consistent, which does not meet the criteria for a clear upward or downward trend. Therefore, the overall trend is oscillating. With the addition of a retracement signal that is slightly bullish (+, -, +), there is a higher probability of a stronger performance in the short-term oscillation.
From a fundamental support perspective, the recent shutdown and maintenance of Changzhou Xinyang's 100,000 tons of phthalic anhydride facility, along with oversold inventory, and the limited supply from Tongling Chemical Industry Group due to tight sources, have provided strong support for prices on the supply side.
IV. Positional Space Reference
Phthalic anhydride 60-day, 3-month, and 1-year cycle prices are all at high levels, corresponding to the 5th level out of 5, with limited room for further increases. If subsequent demand does not follow up sufficiently, there is a possibility of prices falling from their high levels.
V. 1-Year Trend Chart Display
6. Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
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