July 14th News
Price Trend
According to Spotcom data, in the first half of July, the Chinese PC market showed a recovery after a decline, with spot prices for various grades basically returning to the levels at the beginning of the month. As of July 14, the mixed benchmark price for PC was around 13,033.33 CNY/ton, representing a 0.51% increase from the beginning of the month.
Reason Analysis
Supply Side: Entering July, the operating rates of China's PC polymerization enterprises continued to recover. After Pingmei Shenma gradually restarted, the load at the beginning of the month remained stable, Luxi Petrochemical restarted one production line, and Zhangzhou Chi Mei is about to resume operations. The overall industry load rate is around 80%. The loss in production is gradually decreasing, with the weekly average output returning to about 65,000 tons. The smoothness of shipments from polymer plants is moderate. Overall, the supply side provides limited support to PC.
Regarding Raw Materials: As shown in the chart above, during the first half of July, China’s bisphenol A market mainly remained in a low-level consolidation phase, with price increases being relatively narrow. International crude oil prices rose due to repeated tensions in the Middle East, driving significant increases in acetone and phenol prices as well. Market sentiment toward bisphenol A remains positive; however, supply changes in the early part of the month were limited, and demand continued to be driven by essential needs. As the middle of the month approached, supply of genuine branded products gradually tightened, prompting holders to adopt a firm pricing stance. Consequently, lower-priced supplies from downstream sources became scarce, and the focus of actual transaction prices shifted upward. Overall, this provided stronger upward support for polycarbonate (PC) costs.
Demand Side: Sales at downstream PC factories are at off-season levels, with demand for sheet materials and enclosures softening. End-user companies are operating at low utilization rates. Currently, PC prices have largely reached their lowest point of the year, and market sentiment is heavily characterized by wait-and-see attitudes. Buyers are cautious about stocking up and show little willingness to build positions. The liquidity of supply has slowed down, and traders are quoting prices on a spot-by-spot basis, cautiously testing the waters with upward price adjustments. Available supply in the market still needs to be absorbed, and polymer manufacturers’ pricing focus shows only limited upward movement. Overall, demand-side support for PC spot prices remains weak.
Future Market Forecast
In the first half of July, the Chinese PC market showed a recovery after a decline. The price of upstream bisphenol A increased from a low level, leading to a slight rise in the cost support for PC. The operating rates of Chinese PC polymerization plants continued to increase, with expectations of more relaxed supply in the future. Trading in the market was mainly driven by weak but necessary demand, with cautious inventory building and mostly small-scale transactions. Currently, with increasing supply and weak demand, there is significant resistance to market growth, and it is expected that the price increase will be limited in the short term.
Technical Analysis
Analysts believe that according to SpotCom, in the first half of July, the 10-day moving average and 20-day moving average of PC did not show a crossover. The auxiliary indicators show that the 5 price levels of PC are at recent high points and further out at mid to low points. The negative trend in the difference between the averages is narrowing, indicating a short-term corrective trend. It is recommended to closely monitor the fundamental situation of PC for future market conditions.
