November 2nd report:
According to the Spotcom AI assistant, this analysis of the 180CST fuel oil price trend is based on the latest spot prices, average difference indicators, and publicly available industry data. As of November 1, 2026, the Chinese fuel oil market has shown a slight upward trend since late October. The 180CST low-sulfur fuel oil quotations from China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) in various regions have been adjusted upwards by 50-200 CNY/ton. The current average difference signal indicates that the price has entered a rebound phase with a bias towards consolidation, and given that the price is at a high point in the nearly 1-year cycle, the subsequent upside potential is relatively limited. This is for reference by industry participants.
Note: The most recent data available as of November 1, 2026; real-time data is recommended.
I. Table of Finite Differences
| Mean Difference Indicator | Value as of November 1, 2026 | Value as of October 31, 2026 | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day Mean Difference (D5) | 17.5 | 32.5 | - |
| 10-Day Mean Difference (D10) | 41.25 | 38.75 | + |
| 20-Day Mean Difference (D20) | 99.37 | 104.37 | - |
II. Signal State Determination
When the three successive divided differences change in the sequence (−, +, −), the corresponding signal is a pullback (bearish).
III. Conclusions on Trend Directions
The current price trend is oscillating, reason: the changes in the three averages compared to the previous day are not completely consistent, not meeting the criteria for a clear upward or downward trend, thus remaining in an oscillating range, with the overall signal being slightly bearish.
IV. Positional Space Reference
Fuel oil prices are at the 5th tier (high position) in a 1-year cycle, with limited upside potential.
V. One-Year Price Trend Chart for Fuel Oil
VI. Recent Market Support References
Spot price end: Since late October, the self-pickup quotation for 180CST low-sulfur fuel oil in China has increased from 7,600-8,000 CNY/ton to 7,700-8,200 CNY/ton. The single-ton quotations in regions such as Qingdao, Shanghai, and Ningbo of China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) have been cumulatively raised by 50-200 yuan.
At the import–export level: From January to September 2026, China’s cumulative fuel oil exports totaled 16.5329 million tons, while cumulative imports reached 12.858 million tons, with export volumes exceeding imports, indicating an overall tight supply situation in China.
Upstream cost side: International crude oil prices have been running high for nearly 1 year. On October 29, the prices of gasoline and diesel in China were increased by 345 CNY/ton and 335 CNY/ton, respectively, providing some cost support to fuel oil prices.
Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
