October 29th, News
According to the Spotcom AI assistant, this daily report is based on the average difference analysis framework, combining the latest customs import and export data, and spot market quotes in China to objectively assess the price trend of 180CST fuel oil: Recently, the spot price of fuel oil in China has been rising slightly. The current average difference signal indicates a bullish consolidation pattern, with prices at a high level for the past year. The room for further increases is limited, and attention should be paid to the impact of upstream crude oil price fluctuations and changes in import and export policies on the market.
The most recent available data is up to October 28, 2026. It is recommended to refer to real-time data.
I. Latest Fundamental Data
Import and export data: In September 2026, China’s fuel oil export volume was 2.5926 million tons, with cumulative exports for January–September totaling 16.5329 million tons; in September, the import volume stood at 1.1342 million tons, and cumulative imports from January to September reached 12.858 million tons.
Spot price situation: On October 28, the Chinese fuel oil market saw a slight increase, with the self-pickup low-sulfur 180cst fuel oil quotes ranging from 7,600 to 8,200 CNY per ton. In Shanghai, China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) quoted 7,800 CNY per ton, an increase of 100 CNY per ton from the previous trading day. On October 27, the overall Chinese fuel oil market was stable, with 180cst quotes ranging from 7,600 to 8,000 CNY per ton. In Qingdao, the quote was 8,250 CNY per ton, an increase of 50 CNY per ton from the previous trading day.
II. Analysis of the Mean Difference Indicator
Mean Difference Variation Table
| Indicator | Value as of 2026.10.28 | Value as of 2026.10.27 | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day Moving Average (D5) | 37.5 | 25.0 | + |
| 10-Day Moving Average (D10) | 45.0 | 57.5 | - |
| 20-Day Moving Average (D20) | 93.75 | 83.75 | + |
Signal State Determination
The current three difference change combinations are (+, -, +), which belong to the retracement (bullish bias) type in oscillation signals.
Trend Direction Conclusion
The current trend in fuel oil prices is fluctuating. Reason: The changes in the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages compared to the previous day are not entirely consistent, not meeting the criteria for a clear upward or downward trend. Overall, it is in a fluctuation range, with a stronger short-term bullish attribute.
III. Positional Space Reference
Fuel oil prices in China over the past year are in the 5th tier (high), within the top 20% price range of the cycle, with limited room for further increases.
IV. 1-Year Trend Chart Display
Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
