Dichloromethane: Where the support fades to the bottom

Dichloromethane, which has experienced a sharp rise and a sharp fall, has become normal. The four-day bottoming rally ended, and a new round of declines began without knowing where the bottom was.

By November 2, the domestic methane chloride opening day operating rate increased to 58.34%, dongyue load increased to 70%, maintenance time delayed, the specific is not clear; Luxi device increased to 80%; The load of Ningbo Juhua plant was increased to 50%. According to the rough calculation of Loncrowd information, the daily output of dichloromethane in China is about 3,400 tons, an increase of about 600 tons last week. The improvement of output and the delay of maintenance equipment have a negative impact on the market mentality. In addition, some traders still have part of the inventory, the social circulation of goods is very loose.

The downstream demand side is not good, the rise and fall of dichloromethane price, it is difficult to arouse the enthusiasm of downstream orders, most of them continue to be based on just need orders. The refrigerant R32 market is restricted by the export license application, and there may be a "window period" in early November, which is unfavorable for the export of R32. For domestic trade, air conditioning factories mainly take goods on demand, but there is no significant increase in refrigerant R32. The shipment of R32 is not smooth, restricting the demand for dichloromethane from bottom to top.

Domestic methane chloride profit and cost trend in 2021

Coal price limit "back", the National Development and Reform Commission three groups of heavy control, coal prices fell sharply, power tension eased, chlorine and alkali plants started to improve, leading to the rapid withdrawal of liquid chlorine prices. And with the upgrade of coal price control, the spot market further lower.

 According to the rough statistics of Lonzhong Information, on November 1, the cost of methane chloride dropped by 2,480 CNY/ton, or 36.69%, compared with the cost of methanol and liquid chlorine at the peak. The profit is 965 CNY/ton higher than the peak, up to 118.40%. When the profit space of dichloromethane increases, some production enterprises increase production at full capacity, and the downstream demand is weak, which increases the profit space and increases the risk of falling back from high market.

In the short term, the supply side has no clear overhaul heard, the overall operating rate is expected to maintain about 60%, the supply side loose. Downstream maintenance just need to set mining, demand side support is also general. In terms of liquid chlorine, it is difficult for the price in North China to continue to rise, and the price may remain 2000-2200 CNY/ton.

In methanol, the coal price has not yet bottomed out, which has always affected the buying mentality. The methanol market is mainly weak. Under the support of supply and demand and cost, dichloromethane is expected to enter a continuous downward channel, pay attention to the change of the subsequent news surface.