PTA Prices Stopped Falling and Rebound

PTA price and profit in China

Since December, epidemic situation grim, zhejiang province, a boom in new cases, including ningbo, xiaoshan, shaoxing parts are urgent, because of the outbreak, ningbo zhenhai has temporarily closed management, currently in shaoxing binhai, shangyu, some factories also independently implement closed-end management, other area also strengthen prevention and control of foreign personnel, logistics limited.

The rebound of the cost side supports the market atmosphere. From the perspective of the supply side, the recent maintenance of PTA equipment increases, and the equipment is expected to enter the maintenance of Yadong Petrochemical, Hengli Petrochemical 2#. Because of the unexpected stop of the device has Yishanda, Ningbo Yisheng, Honggang petrochemical delayed restart, Sichuan can have been restarted.

At present, the total production capacity loss of PTA is 19.69125 million tons, among which the equipment temporarily reduced due to the aggravation of the epidemic is Yisheng New Materials, accounting for 5.43% of the national production capacity. The specific recovery time still depends on the recovery of the epidemic. Supply side contraction, coupled with international crude oil recovery and expected to continue to rise space; The cost end and the supply narrow support PTA price. Therefore, the supply and demand pattern of PTA in December changed from exhausted to depleted.

As of December 09, the comprehensive opening probability of chemical fiber weaving in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 56.37%, down 2.56% from the previous month. At present, the market is gradually cooling down. The inventory of finished products in factories increases at the end of the year.

 At the end of the year, the factory is forced to withdraw funds due to inventory suppression. Although a small number of orders will be placed in the spring and summer of next year, the quantity is scarce and the fluctuation of superimposed raw materials is obvious. The buyers and sellers are mostly in a stalemate, and the specific implementation time is to be determined. Under the recent outbreak of the epidemic, some downstream factories are expected to have a holiday in advance, and the opening rate is expected to have a downward trend in the later period. Domestic polyester and terminal weaving enterprises supply shrinkage is obvious.

Current polyester load down to 81.33%, approaching the Spring Festival holiday, polyester load may continue to decline. But for polyester enterprises themselves in the polyester supply reduction situation, related to the finished product inventory pressure or a certain easing. But for PTA itself, the demand has not yet obvious positive signs of regression.

In summary, although the current maintenance of the cost end and the supply end has boosted the PTA market, PTA spot price rose to 4688 CNY/ton, 6.84 percentage points higher than the low spot price in December, and PTA spot base recently gradually strengthened to the premium, but the demand side has not been significantly driven. Considering the current cost support and low PTA processing difference, PTA has a small downward decline. If PTA has further increase still need to wait for the emergence of a new drive.