Cost-pulling Superimposed Manufacturers Support The Market, And Adipic Acid Will Rise Sharply After The Holiday

In the first week after the holiday, domestic adipic acid prices rose sharply, and adipic acid in East China rose 11% this week. The market price range of adipic acid over the weekend is 14,000-14,500 CNY/ton. The main reason is that, driven by costs, crude oil rose sharply, driving pure benzene higher, and adipic acid manufacturers successively raised their listing prices after the holiday, and the market naturally rose.

In terms of market supply, the operating rate of adipic acid has not changed much compared with that before the festival, and it is currently maintained at about 66%. Manufacturers are mainly price-conscious. At the beginning of the week, the listed prices of major manufacturers increased by 500 yuan, bringing guidance to the market. The start-up of the factory is basically stable, and the Taihua plant has started operation at a reduced rate, which is currently about 80%; the operating rate of a plant in Shandong Haili has dropped to about 70%; the operation of other plants is mainly stable, and the supply has not increased after the festival. The rising price of diacid provided a boost.

After the holiday, the upstream of the adipic acid industry chain continued to improve, and the upstream products of cyclohexanone and pure benzene continued to catch up. However, the price of downstream PA66 has weakened, indicating that the downstream demand for adipic acid tends to weaken.

Pure benzene has continued to rebound since December last year, with an increase of nearly 30% so far. After the holiday, pure benzene continued to rise. According to monitoring, the weekly increase of pure benzene was as high as 5.72%. The high cost brought a strong boost to the downstream adipic acid. It is expected to be supported by the high cost. 

Cyclohexanone continued to rise, with a weekly gain of 2.79%. The surge in crude oil has led to rising costs, superimposed supply shortages, and significantly lower commodity supply. The cost side is still favorable for downstream adipic acid.

The prices of upstream products, cyclohexanone and pure benzene, continue to rise, and adipic acid is forced to rise under cost pressure.

Terminal demand: PA66 downstream of adipic acid continued to be weak after the holiday. Data shows that the market for PA66 declined, and the price fell by 2.08% on a weekly basis. Compared with the pre-holiday period, the operating rate of the industry has recently increased, and the operating level of the domestic PA66 industry has basically returned to normal. The inventory position in Hong Kong is not high, and the arrival of overseas goods is limited. In terms of demand, after the holiday, buyers have a tendency to follow up with goods that are just in need to maintain production, and high-priced sources of goods have great resistance to transactions. The smoothness of on-site shipments is not good, the seller's mentality is affected, and the offer is profitable. The late downstream weakness may suppress the high price of adipic acid.

In the later period, adipic acid will still be supported by the favorable cost side in the short term. In addition, manufacturers will continue to control production and price. The market remains high and volatile, but downstream purchases cannot be bulked up, some of the inventory is mainly digested, and the enthusiasm for entering the market is general. Therefore, it is expected that the domestic adipic acid market will run at a high level next week, and there will be little room for upside. In the near future, we need to pay attention to the dynamics of large factories and the resumption of downstream work.