PA66's Market Outlook Overview

In recent times, the topic of soaring international oil prices, repeatedly on the chemical plate hot search, and the same on the hot search there are endless letters of price increases, the high rate of increase, approaching the 10,000 yuan mark.

Last March, I remember vividly, the overwhelming price letter came, and then PA66 an uncontrollable, open price mode. To this day, the same is also a letter after a price increase, but the result is a chilling. Does it mean that even the price letter can not save the sluggish PA66 market?

Upstream, adipic acid has basically maintained a shaky finishing operation in recent times. Due to the pull of crude oil and pure benzene, manufacturers are more willing to raise prices. In the short term, the adipic acid market is still likely to strengthen.

That high price of adipic acid why still can not support PA66? We look at another upstream adiponitrile! The previous period due to force majeure and stop production of adiponitrile device, has announced the lifting of force majeure, the supply gradually restored stability. However, the impact of international health events, overseas transport a larger problem, the major ports do not have much inventory, the status quo of domestic arrivals has been long.

As we all know, domestic PA66 production is extremely dependent on imports, but there is news that there is new capacity release of PA66 in 2022. Tianchen Qixiang 300,000 tons of adiponitrile plant is scheduled to be put into operation at the end of March.

The third phase of INVISTA's adiponitrile plant is still under construction and will be put into operation at the end of June 2022, after which INVISTA's adiponitrile capacity will be as high as 470,000 tonnes/year. If the first half of production smoothly, adiponitrile localization will drive the rapid development of the PA66 industry, the market is abundant, PA66 prices will have further space to fall.

Supply, the recent PA66 industry is basically normal. In addition to Zhejiang Huafeng a 40,000 tons / year device overhaul, you fiber technology to maintain a single line of operation, other manufacturers start normal.

Downstream, with data to speak. According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers statistical analysis, in January 2022, automobile production and sales were completed 2.242 million units and 2.531 million units, down 16.7% and 9.2% ringgit, up 1.4% and 0.9% year-on-year, respectively.

Obviously, PA66's main downstream application industry - the automotive industry is trying to come out from the gloom of the epidemic, but the overall is still a long way to go, especially the repeated foreign epidemic, virus mutations and other situations, automotive exports will still face some resistance to enhance the volume.

In conclusion, despite the current higher international crude oil prices, but the uncertainties are still more, unable to lay a solid foundation for the cost.

At present, PA66 industry starts at a high level, the supply side of the spot support is not strong enough, coupled with strong resistance from downstream users to the previous high-priced sources of goods, resulting in continued sluggish downstream demand, the market momentum is insufficient. In the short term, the PA66 market will remain weak pattern.