MTBE Market Fluctuations in China

December 12 news

According to the commodity market analysis system, from December 8 to 12, the MTBE price first fell and then rose from 4947 CNY/ton to 4967 CNY/ton, with a price increase of 0.40% during the period, a decrease of 0.40% month-over-month, and a decrease of 13.31% year-over-year. The Chinese MTBE market first declined and then rose, as some manufacturers suspended shipments, leading to a reduction in supply, which provided some support for prices, and the market did not show a significant downward trend. Near the end of the week, transactions improved again, driven by periodic restocking at the terminal, and manufacturers attempted to slightly increase prices, but the transactions were weak after the price increase.

MTBE China production price average trend chart:

Cost Perspective: On the crude oil front, international oil prices have declined. The primary negative factors are: partial resumption of production at some Iraqi oil fields, and ongoing U.S. efforts to facilitate peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, both of which are putting downward pressure on the oil market. As of December 11, the settlement price for the February Brent crude oil futures contract was reported at $61.28 per barrel.

Demand side, in the downstream gasoline sector, a new round of expected reduction in retail price caps for refined oil products makes it difficult to change the weak market situation. Both buyers and sellers are operating cautiously, and the market is filled with a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. The demand for MTBE is negatively affected by these factors.

Supply side: The Ningbo Haode facility has started operations, while the Dechen Energy facility has stopped. The Hebei Xinxinyuan facility is expected to start operations and may begin producing. There is a possibility that Yuhuang Shengrong and Shandong Chengtai may stop operations. Overall, the facility utilization rate is expected to decline. The MTBE supply side is influenced by positive factors.

As of December 12, statistics on MTBE factory prices from selected production enterprises:

As of the close on December 11, the Asian MTBE market closed at a price $0.03 per ton lower than the previous trading day, with FOB Singapore at $643.26–$645.26 per ton. The European MTBE market closed $6 per ton lower than the previous trading day, with FOB ARA at $751.24–$751.74 per ton. The U.S. MTBE market closed $22.92 per ton lower than the previous trading day, with FOB Gulf offshore prices at $636.35–$636.71 per ton (179.68–179.78 cents per gallon).

Market Forecast: Raw material prices remain at high levels, leaving manufacturers on the verge of losses and giving them some incentive to hold prices steady. With an increasing number of units shutting down, supply conditions are showing certain positive signs. MTBE analysts believe that the Chinese MTBE market has the potential to move higher.