Why is there insufficient upward momentum for power coal prices in peak season?

It is the peak season of traditional demand for power coal, but the downstream demand continues to be depressed, and the inventory of downstream enterprises is at a high level, and the power coal market operates under pressure.

Although it is in the peak season of traditional power coal demand, the power coal market has been in a downward trend in recent years, and the upward power is insufficient. Compared with the same period in previous years, it is running at a low level. Taking Q5500 Daka power coal in Qinhuangdao as an example, the current quotation of mainstream traders is 590-595 CNY/ton, which is about 80 CNY/ton lower than 665-675 CNY/ton in the same period last year, with a decrease of nearly 12%. The supply side is in a relatively loose state. In the near future, both the transit ports and the downstream power plants have maintained high inventories. Taking Qinhuangdao as an example, since July, with the decrease of origin freight and the increase of shipping enthusiasm, the downstream terminal demand has been depressed, and the inventory of Qinhuangdao has risen as a whole. As of July 18, the inventory of Qinhuangdao has reached 6.16 million tons, an increase of 775,000 tons from 5.385 million tons at the beginning of the month. With the increase of inventory in Qinhuangdao Port, the total quantity of high-quality coal increases, the supply increases, and the price of power coal further declines. The demand side is also in the first downturn, and the inventory of the six coastal power plants is at a high level. Inventory has dropped 18 million tons for the first time since July 2, when it exceeded 18 million tons. As of July 18, inventory was 17.762 million tons, but daily consumption is still hovering around 600,000 tons, with 28.4 days available. Six power plants along the coast take the initiative to strengthen the awareness of inventory removal, daily consumption is mainly based on the digestion of inventory, low demand for coal in the market, and suppress downstream purchasing enthusiasm. Secondly, since July, due to the impact of staggered peak production in cement and other industries, electricity consumption in high-energy-consuming industries has declined, and coal consumption in power plants has declined accordingly. At the same time, in some areas, in order to strengthen environmental protection and restrict the use of coal as fuel or raw material, the demand for power coal has been weakened to a certain extent.

Third, the substitution of clean energy power generation for thermal power generation is further enhanced. According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics recently, the absolute power generation in June 2019 was 583.4 billion kWh, an increase of 2.8% over the same period last year. Among them, the absolute thermal power generation in China increased by 0.1% over the same period of last year, the absolute hydraulic power generation increased by 6.9% over the same period of last year, the absolute nuclear power generation increased by 17.8% over the same period of last year, the absolute wind power generation increased by 11.9% over the same period of last year, the absolute solar power generation increased by 103 billion kilowatt hours over the same period of last year, and the absolute solar power generation increased by 17.8% over the same period of last year. 7.4%. From January to June 2019, the absolute power generation in China increased by 3.3% year on year, slowing down by 0.9 percentage points compared with the first quarter. Among them, the national absolute thermal power generation capacity of 2448.7 billion kWh increased by 0.2% year on year; the absolute hydraulic power generation capacity of 5138 billion kWh increased by 11.8% year on year; the nuclear power generation capacity of 160 billion kWh increased by 23.1% year on year; the absolute wind power generation capacity of 1879 billion kWh increased by 6.6% year on year; and the absolute solar power generation capacity of 56.8 billion kWh increased year on year. Long 11.2%. In addition, according to the brief operation of the power industry released by China UnionPay in January-May, the investment in hydropower projects completed 25.5 billion yuan in the first May, an increase of 33.8% over the previous year, while the investment in thermal power projects was only 16.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 26.6% over the previous year. The data show that the growth rate of absolute thermal power generation is much lower than that of other clean energy generation. At the same time, hydropower projects are much higher than thermal power investment, the role of thermal power generation is weakened, and the demand for electric coal is squeezed. At present, the inventory of port and downstream power plants is at a high level, and the demand has not been significantly increased for the time being. It is expected that the power coal market will be weak and stable in the later period.