Daily consumption improves slowly and future rebound is limited

Yesterday, coking coal main contract shocks upward. JM1909 closed at 1409 CNY/ton with 149,000 hands. Spot prices are temporarily stable, and the previous overshoot varieties have risen slightly, making it more difficult to increase. On the supply side, Australian coal imports are still restricted, and customs clearance time of some ports has been extended. The customs clearance of Ganqimao Municipality has gradually returned to normal. In recent days, the volume of customs clearance is about 700-800 vehicles, and the price of Mongolian Coal is temporarily stable. There is shrinkage at the import end. Domestic supply is basically stable. In terms of demand, the start-up of coking plants has decreased, but coking plants are still mainly replenishing stores on demand. In the short run, the price of coking coal is stable. Yesterday, coke main contract shocks dominated. At the closing date, J1909 contract closed at 2122 CNY/ton with 283,000 hands. The scope of the first round of spot increase is widened, but it is more conflicting in the case of high stocks in steel mills. On the supply side, there is a tendency to tighten the restriction of coking production. In terms of inventory, coking plant inventory is low and port inventory is increased. With the production limit of coking, the blast furnace starts normally, and the overall coke inventory decreases slightly. There is a possibility of tightening the BF production restriction in Tangshan area. Once the BF production restriction is tightened, the demand for Coke will be reduced, which is still under certain pressure under the situation of high coke inventory. Therefore, short-term or oscillating operation of coke should pay attention to inventory depletion and production restriction. Pit mouth recent sales progress is general, shipping hang upside down is still serious, pit price pressure. The mood of the port market is low and the turnover is weak. The price of 5500 cards is 595-600 CNY/ton. Recently, import factors have attracted much attention. The long customs clearance time has brought some improvement to market sentiment. The face 909 contract rebounded slightly. However, due to the high end inventory and slow improvement of daily consumption, the rebound is expected to be limited in the future.