General Demand, Domestic LNG Market Rises and Then Declines

1. Price Trend

On April 22, the average price of domestic LNG was 6,980 CNY/ton, an increase of 176 CNY/ton, or 2.59%, compared with the price of 6,840 CNY/ton at the beginning of the month, and an increase of 125.89% compared with the same period last year.

2. Analysis of Influencing Factors

This week, the domestic LNG market rose first and then fell, with an overall increase of 2.59% during the week. At the beginning of the week, with the improvement of logistics and transportation in various places, the atmosphere of liquid factory shipments improved, and the price continued to push up to above 7,000 yuan, close to the cost line, but the increase continued for a short period of time. Due to the decline in the price of imported gas, the demand in the off-season weakened. Affected by unfavorable factors such as the price reduction of raw gas, the domestic gas steadily declined in the middle and late period of the week, and the price of imported gas also declined. At present, it is 6750-7150 CNY/ton in Inner Mongolia, 6960-7250 CNY/ton in Shaanxi, 6600-7300 CNY/ton in Shanxi, 6950-7000 CNY/ton in Ningxia, 7000-7600 CNY/ton in Hebei, 7400-7400 yuan in Henan. 7900 CNY/ton. The price of the receiving station is about 7200-9500 CNY/ton. China's LNG spot CIF price was $25.36/MMBtu, and the price was raised.

According to the weekly change from January 24, 2022 to April 17, 2022, it can be seen that the domestic LNG cycle rose and fell, fell in January, and rose sharply after the Spring Festival in February. The weekly increase was 37.41%, and it fluctuated within a narrow range in March, and the market fell into April.

Downstream products were mixed:

Methanol, the domestic methanol market rose first and then fell this week, and the overall fluctuation was limited. Crude oil and the macro atmosphere have weakened, affecting the futures market to fall. Manufacturers in the main domestic producing areas raised their quotations, but the transactions in different regions were different.

Urea, on April 21, the liquid ammonia market in Shandong did not change much, and it continued to be stable this week. At present, the market price is still at a high level, the inventory pressure in the region is general, the supply pressure is not large, and the downstream normal procurement is mainly. There is no major change in the quotations of manufacturers in Shandong, the inventory pressure of manufacturers is normal, and the shipments are good. At present, supply and demand are basically in balance. Today, the mainstream price in this region is 4800-4950 CNY/ton. The market is expected to run at a high level in the near future.

3. Market outlook forecast

The liquefied natural gas analyst of the business agency believes that: the current market has obvious factors in the off-season, demand is declining, domestic liquid prices have steadily declined, and there is only one week left before the May Day holiday, the liquid factory shipments are obviously psychological, and it is expected that there will still be downward expectations in the short term.