This week, the Chinese urea market showed a weak downward trend (5.15-5.21)

May 21 news

I. Price Trends

According to the commodity market analysis system, as of May 21st, the reference average price of urea in Shandong region, China was 1775 CNY/ton, a decrease of 2.61% from the reference average price of 1822 CNY/ton on May 15th in the Chinese urea market.

II. Market Analysis

Market Conditions

This week, the urea market prices in China continued to weaken and decline. Recently, influenced by export rumors, the spot market prices have been continuously falling. After a decline, the futures market began to rebound. As of May 21, the urea market quotations in Shandong region were around 1740-1800 CNY/ton, in Hebei region 1750-1790 CNY/ton, in Henan region 1750-1800 CNY/ton, in Hubei region 1750-1810 CNY/ton, and in Liaoning region 1850-1870 CNY/ton.

Supply and Demand Situation

On the supply side, the current operating rate of urea enterprises in China is over 90%, with overall inventory still at a high level. On the demand side, the demand for agricultural urea fertilizers has weakened. The operating rate of downstream compound fertilizer enterprises has decreased, leading to a reduction in urea purchases. The demand for industrial urea has also started to weaken.

III. Future Market Forecast

Urea analysts believe: Recently, the trend in China's urea market has mainly been downward. Currently, it is the off-season for urea demand, with slower downstream purchases and fewer new orders. There are no positive news at present, and it is expected that the Chinese urea market will mainly be weak and consolidating in the short term.

4. Technical Analysis

From the spot commodity market analysis system, it can be seen that the current 10-day moving average of urea is below the 20-day moving average, indicating a trend that aligns with the forecasted decline in the Chinese market.

Auxiliary indicators show that the current urea price is at the median level among the five price tiers. We forecast that there is still room for urea prices to decline in the future, so we recommend exercising caution.