Coal storage in power plants consumes slow power coal

In recent years, under the influence of heavy rainfall, residential refrigeration power demand is weak. Coal consumption of six coastal power plants has decreased from the previous high level, and maintained at about 700,000 tons.

China Coal Resources Network data show that as of August 7, the daily consumption of the six major coastal power plants was 709,000 tons, an increase of 24,000 tons over the previous day, a decrease of 107,000 tons over the same period last week and a decrease of 86,000 tons over the same period last year. At the later stage, with the retreat of subtropical high eastward, the large-scale high temperature weather process in the central and eastern part of China will also come to an end. Residents'refrigeration demand lacks sustainability. On August 21, the peak season of demand will gradually come to an end after the end of the three-volt period.

Because of the high inventory and the expectation of the end of the peak season, as well as the low price of coal in the port, the purchase enthusiasm of power plants is low, and the coal stock has declined.

As of August 7, the coal reserves of the six major coastal power plants were 17.271 million tons, 53,000 tons less than the previous day, 256,000 tons less than the same period last week, but still increased by 1983,000 tons compared with the same period last year.

The available days for coal storage were 24.3 days, 1 day less than the previous day, 2.8 days more than the same period last week and 5.1 days more than the same period last year.

According to China Coal Resources Network, coal inquiries in the port market are on the low side, the demand for coal purchased by downstream traders is slowing down based on the sentiment of "buying up but not buying down", and some downstream power plants are selling Changxie coal at a lower price because of high inventory and poor unloading. Upstream suppliers'willingness to sell Changxie coal based on weak demand is increasing. The quotation went down, but there was no obvious sell-off.

Now (CV5500) quotes about 590 yuan, (CV5000) quotes about 510-515 yuan.

On August 6, the latest CCI power coal price of China Coal Resources Network showed that CCI5500 power coal price was 588 CNY/ton, down 2 CNY/ton from the previous period, down 27 CNY/ton from the same period last month, and CCI5000 power coal price was 513 CNY/ton, down 1 CNY/ton from the previous period, down 3 consecutive periods, down from the previous period. Prices were lowered by 21 CNY/ton in the same period last month.

According to China Meteorological Network, it is estimated that in the next 10 days (August 7-16), the cumulative rainfall in the eastern part of the Yangtze River, the eastern part of the Yangtze River and Huaihe River, the eastern part of the Huanghuai River, the eastern part of North China, the southern and eastern part of the Northeast China, and parts of Yunnan and Sichuan Basins will be 50-80 mm, and 100-180 mm in some areas, including parts of the eastern coastal areas of the Yangtze River It has 200-400 mm. In the next 10 days, the occurrence of high temperature weather is relatively small, only in Xinjiang Basin, Jianghan and the western part of the Yangtze River. In the long run, the accumulated rainfall in the southeastern part of the Yangtze River and the central and southern part of South China is higher than that in the same period of the year. The cumulative rainfall in the eastern part of Northwest China, North China, the western part of Huanghuai and the northern part of Northeast China is slightly less than that in the same period of the year.

Except for the average temperature of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is lower than that of the same period of the year, the temperature of most other areas in China is close to or higher than that of the same period of the year, and the average temperature of North China and Northeast China is 1-3 degrees higher than that of the same period of the year.

In the case of high temperature, the daily consumption of power plants may continue to exceed 700,000 tons in the near future, but the current recovery of daily consumption does not exceed seasonality. The monthly daily consumption data show that the average daily coal consumption of the six major coastal power generation groups in July 2018 is 774,100 tons, compared with 666,900 tons in July 2019, which is still significantly lower than the level in 2018. Coal storage consumption of

power plants is slow, while coal stocks of coastal power plants are about 15% higher than that of the previous year. If the average daily consumption of 800,000 tons is calculated in the first and middle of August 2018, the existing stocks can basically cover the end of the peak demand season effectively. At the same time, the stock of transit ports showed no signs of decreasing. According to the China Coal Resources Network, as of August 6, the total stock of the four ports around the Bohai Sea was 24.298 million tons, an increase of 518,000 tons over the previous day and 3.819 million tons over the same period last month. The number of anchorage vessels in Qinhuangdao Port is relatively low. On August 6, 26 anchorage vessels increased by 3 from the previous day, 7 from the same period last month and 15 from the same period last year. This means that downstream demand remains sluggish and market support is insufficient. On the supply side, the policy orientation of ensuring the stability of coal supply has not changed. In June, the output of raw coal increased by 10% year on year, effectively alleviating the market's worries about supply. Moreover, the inventory consumption of downstream enterprises is slow in the early stage, and the demand for purchasing is low. Changxie Coal, which has not been implemented before, is still waiting to be realized in the port. Under the guarantee of the supply of Changxie Coal, the supply will not be very tight. In terms of price, due to the recent rainy weather, the main coal mines in their producing areas have been unable to deliver goods. Some coal mines have stopped production and reduced production. In addition, the downstream purchasing is weak and production enthusiasm is not high, resulting in a small drop in output and a rise in prices in some coal mines. Supported by the rising cost end-pit quotation, the cost of coal arrival has increased significantly in the context of the increasing cost of coal washing and the rising short-inverted cost.

According to the evaluation of Fenwei Energy's production area on August 6, the cost of power coal (CV5500) transported to the northern port in the "Three West" area is estimated as follows: Shanxi coal 630 yuan, Mongolian coal 626 yuan, Shaanxi coal 608 yuan, CCI5500 index 588 yuan on August 6, cost inversion is 42 yuan, 38 yuan and 20 yuan, respectively. The average inverted level of shipment increased by 2.6 yuan compared with the previous day. In this case, the price of power coal does not have the condition to go up substantially, and the space to continue to go down is limited.

In a word, the autumn is approaching, the heat is getting farther and farther, the daily consumption is increasing weakly, and the release of advanced coal production capacity is expected to continue to accelerate. It is expected that this year's "peak summer", power coal may pass through the weak shocks.