The EU is considering activating a rarely used trade defence tool to protect its chemical and plastics industries. France, Italy and very likely Germany plan to submit applications to the European Commission within weeks, requesting import quotas on PET, epoxy resin and glass fibre—so-called safeguard measures.
This tool is different from the commonly used anti-dumping measures. Anti-dumping targets unfair trade, requires proof that dumping exists, and duty rates vary by company. Safeguards are not aimed at specific countries; they apply to all trading partners, and even countries that have signed free trade agreements with the EU may be affected. Quotas directly limit import volumes, with additional tariffs imposed on volumes exceeding the quota. They do not require proof of unfair trade—only proof that a surge in imports has caused injury to domestic industry. The EU currently has more than 150 trade measures in force, most of them anti-dumping duties on specific products. Safeguards have historically been used only once, for ferroalloys.
The EU has avoided safeguard measures in the past because many member states consider them protectionist. But the situation has changed. US tariff increases have closed off part of the EU market, and combined with a continuously widening trade deficit with China, the EU’s trade stance is tightening. China’s trade surplus with the EU last year reached EUR 360.6 billion, up 15% from 2024, and widened by another 9% in the first half of this year.
France has clearly stated that it supports, in principle, safeguard investigations into certain chemical and plastic products. Officials from the French trade minister’s office said special attention should be paid to the severe difficulties currently facing the European chemical industry. Italy also intends to push for investigations into certain chemicals used in defence, automotive, energy, shipbuilding and infrastructure industries. Germany’s economy ministry said it is open in principle, and the chemical industry is preparing to file investigation applications.
Consider the scale of China’s exports to the EU. In PET, China already accounts for nearly 40% of global capacity. In the first half of 2026, it exported about 520,000 tonnes of PET chips to the EU27 and the UK, up 18.7% year-on-year. The ex-works price of domestically produced PET in Europe is equivalent to more than USD 920 per tonne, while the ex-works price of PET in East China is about USD 780 per tonne FOB. Even after freight and tariffs, imported goods still have a price advantage. Although the EU has imposed anti-dumping duties on Chinese PET since 2024, ranging from 6.9% to 24.2%, Chinese supply has bypassed restrictions through third-country transshipment and overseas production capacity, and the volume actually entering Europe has not decreased noticeably.
In glass fibre, in June 2026 the EU’s final anti-dumping ruling on Chinese glass fibre fabrics set the duty at 69.0%, with some companies receiving individual rates of 34.0% to 37.6%. Even so, China remains the largest source of EU glass fibre imports. In epoxy resin, China’s export volume in January 2026 was 22,014.97 tonnes, up 17.39% year-on-year. However, after major export markets such as the US, the EU and India successively issued final anti-dumping rulings, China’s epoxy resin export volume from January to March 2026 fell 6.9% year-on-year, and export value fell 3.3%. Export markets have already been affected by trade barriers.
Why is the EU now considering activating safeguard measures? Because the European chemical industry is facing sustained operating pressure. BASF is permanently shutting down the ammonia plant at its Ludwigshafen site; ammonia technology was born in Ludwigshafen. The number of employees at Ludwigshafen has fallen below 30,000 for the first time, a 72-year low since 1954, with 300 to 350 full-time positions being cut each month. BASF has cut 4,800 jobs from December 2023 to December 2025. European natural gas prices are about EUR 47 per MWh, compared with a 2019 benchmark of only EUR 15. Ludwigshafen alone bears about EUR 4.1 billion in additional natural gas costs each year. European industrial natural gas prices have long been 3 to 4 times the level of US competitors.
Applications for safeguard measures can only be submitted by EU member states, and final measures require approval by a qualified majority of member states. France and Italy have already been pushing for stronger EU trade defence. Germany, which two years ago opposed EU tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles, now faces pressure from industry to take a tougher stance toward China.
Chemical exporters targeting the European market need to assess whether their exported products are on the list. If PET, epoxy resin and glass fibre account for a large share of exports to Europe, they need to watch in advance whether the EU subsequently launches an investigation and what specific measures it adopts. If quota management is ultimately introduced, the import cost of volumes exceeding the quota may rise significantly, and some export orders dependent on the European market will face reassessment. Demand in Southeast Asia, the Middle East and Latin America is growing, but customer development and certification cycles usually take three to six months. If you do not start now, you will be in a passive position if you wait until quotas are in place to pivot. Companies trading through third countries such as Vietnam and Turkey also need to watch changes in EU scrutiny of rules of origin and circumvention.
