Retaliatory rise in coal prices, or rational return?

In the case of high inventory of power plants and dominated by Changxie coal and imported coal, the quantity of coal purchased from the market is reduced, and the counter-offer price of users is low. It is expected that coal in the port market will have a difficult opportunity to rise substantially. Beginning this weekend, there will be a rational regression of coal prices at ports. Coal prices are expected to rise by about 5-10 yuan per ton.

1. The chief purchasing officer of power plant is Xiecheng, and the stock is too high.

Industrial power consumption is weak and overall coal consumption is reduced. User's Association Coal is basically enough, and there is not much coal in the haulage market. In addition, from January to July this year, the inventory of power plants showed a straight upward trend; at the peak, the coal storage of key power plants rose to more than 90 million tons, and that of coastal power plants rose to 18.32 million tons at one time, prompting the peak season of coal use, the coastal coal market was cold and clean, and power plants have been actively consuming their own stocks. As a result of typhoons and accidents, the port around the Bohai Sea was closed for a week, but the coal used in power plants was not tense, and the number of days available for storing coal had hardly declined.

2. Imported coal is of high quality and low price, and supplementary resources.

Since this year, China has taken measures to restrict coal imports, such as extending customs clearance time and increasing inspection efforts. Recently, some regions have stopped declaring in different places, but the quantity of imported coal is still on the high side. A large influx of low-price imported coal has curbed the sharp rise of domestic coal prices. From January to July this year, China imported 187.36 million tons of coal, an increase of 7% over the same period last year. It is expected that in August, China will still import more than 25 million tons of coal. If there is no effective way to control imports, it is expected that in the next five months of this year, the quantity of imported coal will remain at a high level. This year, the quantity of imported coal in China will exceed 300 million tons.

3. Coal price will be in the blue area.

Macroeconomy, especially industrial economy, is in a recession, and consumption is difficult to perform well. In addition to active upstream shipment, power plants have high inventory and low daily consumption, and are not anxious to haul large quantities of market coal. At present, the price of coal in the port market has fallen to 578 CNY/ton, which belongs to the blue area, but it is close to the green area. Follow-up coal rush is about to start, and the price of coal will rise soon. Influenced by factors such as cost support of traders and upstream safety inspection, coal price will not fall below 575 CNY/ton; affected by high inventory level and low daily consumption of power plants, retaliatory rise of coal price is impossible, and port coal price will not break through 600 CNY/ton.

It is expected that the price of coal in the port market will fluctuate between 575-600 CNY/ton. Even if the price of coal exceeds 600 CNY/ton in a short time, it will only be priceless and no one will buy it, and it will soon fall.

In the coming months, whether the coastal coal market can go well depends on the following points:

1. Daily consumption of power plants and southern weather, as well as hydropower operation. 2. Supplementary storage of small and medium-sized power plants. 3. The severity of the state's measures to restrict the import of coal. 4. Reproduction of cement industry and recovery of industrial power consumption. 5. Winter storage, transportation and replenishment.