Supply and demand shrink synchronously, coal price is firm!

Coal prices continued to rise slightly. As of September 11, Qinhuangdao Port Shanxi Power Final Coal (Q5500) had a flat warehouse price of 581.0 CNY/ton, up 6.0 CNY/ton from last week. Power coal price index (RMB): CCI 5500 (including tax) 586.0 CNY/ton, up 6.0 CNY/ton from last week. On the production area, the weak caking coal in the southern outskirts of Datong, Shanxi Province, was 415.0 CNY/ton, down 2.0 CNY/ton from last week, while the Dongsheng bulk concentrate in Erdos, Inner Mongolia, was 419.0 CNY/ton, up 3.0 CNY/ton from last week. International coal prices, Newcastle Port power coal spot price of $65.66 per ton, up 0.69 dollars per ton from last week. As of September 11, the main power coal contract futures rose by 9.4 yuan per ton.

Six major power-consuming high-level operation. The average daily consumption of the six major power plants in the coastal areas this week was 701,000 tons, an increase of 31,000 tons, or 4.6%, compared with last week's 670,000 tons, an increase of 87,000 tons, or 14.2%, compared with the 614,000 tons in the same period in 18 years; the daily consumption of the six major power plants on September 12 was 731,000 tons, an increase of 68,000 tons, or 10.3%, an increase of 158,000 tons, or 27.6%, over the same period last year, and the available days was 21.6%. 7 days, down 2.9 days from the same period last week, down 4.9 days from the same period last year.

In August, the imported coal still maintained a high growth rate, and the port coal stocks continued to decline. According to data released by the General Administration of Customs on September 8, China imported 32.952 million tons of coal in August, an increase of 4.273 million tons, an increase of 14.9%, and an increase of 67,000 tons, an increase of 0.2%. From January to August 2019, China imported 2.203 billion tons of coal, an increase of 8.1% over the same period last year. The imported coal still maintained a relatively high growth rate. Inventory of major domestic ports (Qinhuangdao, Caofeidian and Guotou Jingtang Port) declined slightly this week, with an average of 118.55 million tons in the week, down by 480,000 tons, or 3.9% from last week's 123.35 million tons; in terms of the inventory of downstream power plants, the average coal inventory of the major power plants on Saturday was 15.996 million tons, down by 291,000 tons, or 11,000 tons from last week's. 8%, an increase of 912,000 tons or 6.0% over the same period in 18 years, and the throughput of Qinhuangdao Port decreased by 0.9 million tons to 481,000 tons as of September 11.

Double Coke Plate: For coke, based on its high stock and the implementation of different levels of BF production restriction in September, steel mills have a strong voice on coke price at this stage, and coke enterprises have basically implemented the second round of price reduction. After the price reduction, the new signing orders of Jiao enterprises did not improve significantly for the time being. The market participants'sentiment was still pessimistic, and they continued to focus on wait-and-see. However, the supply side is not disturbed by environmental protection for the time being, and the high level is stable. Many coke enterprises have certain stocks in different degrees. Traders are still out of the market in the near future. There are few inquiries and few transactions. The stocks of coke enterprises are increasing slightly. Port coke continued to decline, terminal and traders mainly to clear inventory, the willingness to receive goods is not strong. As for coking coal, the domestic coking coal market is running steadily as a whole, showing a trend of differentiation among different types of coal. Since late August, the coke market has weakened, and some high-price coke resources have begun to lower prices, so as to benefit coke enterprises. Compared with low-sulfur resources, coal blending resources have been operating under pressure. Overall, the mainstream coking coal price is weak and stable.

The analysis shows that coal prices may remain firm against the background of weakening demand, limited supply and declining inventory. On the one hand, with 70 years of Daqing approaching, environmental safety supervision in the main producing areas has been strengthened. Some coal mines have controlled the pace of production, and coal prices have stopped falling and rising. In addition, the coal stocks of the six major power plants in the downstream have fallen below 16 million tons, and the hydropower industry is about to enter a period of weakness. Northeast China will start the winter storage and transportation ahead of schedule. Civil lump coal demand will be released and the price will rise slightly. Overlapping the main export railways, centralized maintenance will be gradually carried out in autumn. Under the multi-factor effect, the mood of the producing areas will turn better and the overall situation will be warmer. On the other hand, after autumn, the daily consumption of power plants has fallen, and the off-season has come. Entering September, the high temperature in most areas of China has disappeared, the demand for refrigeration and electricity has been reduced, and rainwater is more in some areas. The follow-up power plants will welcome unit maintenance, the demand for power coal will gradually transit to the off-season, and the power plants continue to purchase and replenish the reservoir is insufficient. On the whole, coal supply and demand will shrink simultaneously at the present stage, especially under the anticipated tightening of the supply of origin, port coal prices may remain firm. As for coking coal, the domestic coking coal market is running steadily as a whole, and the trend of differentiated coal types is continuing. The overall demand for low-sulfur coke resources is good, and the price is high and firm. Because of the weak coke market, some high-price coke resources have lowered their prices, so as to benefit coke enterprises. Compared with low-sulfur resources, coal blending resources have been operating under pressure. Overall, the mainstream coking coal price is weak and stable.