Daily consumption of power plant continues to improve to domestic coal market

At present, the demand for coal in the downstream remains flat, the market is in a downturn, the number of coal ships arriving at the port remains low, and the port inventory is also increasing; however, the positive factors still exist, namely, the daily consumption of the six coastal power plants has remained stable and increased year on year. After the national day, due to the resumption of production and work in southern industrial enterprises, the power consumption has increased; the daily consumption of six coastal power plants has been stable at 620000 tons, an increase of 80000 tons compared with the same period last year. At the same time, the total coal storage capacity of coastal power plants is close to the same period last year. On October 18, the total coal storage capacity of six coastal power plants was 15.93 million tons, an increase of 570000 tons over the same period last year. According to the previous data, at the beginning of July, six coastal power plants stored 18.3 million tons of coal, 3 million tons higher than the same period last year; after three months of active consumption, the power plant inventory finally approached the same period last year; at present, the daily consumption of power plants is higher than expected, and the coastal coal market still has a first-line vitality. The most unfavorable factor to the market is the influx of imported coal.

Although many places cancel customs clearance in other places, it seems to have little impact on imported coal. In September, China still imported 30.28 million tons of coal, only about 2-3 million tons less than that in July and August, which is disappointing. The author judges that in the next three months, under the influence of winter supply guarantee, the number of imported coal per month in China is still expected to reach 28-30 million tons without the introduction of strong measures to restrict the import of coal. The quantity of coal supply in the upstream is increasing, especially after the normal transportation of Daqin line is restored, the number of coal trucks arriving at the port is obviously increasing, and the coal stock in the port around Bohai Sea is increasing sharply. At present, the peak of coal consumption in winter has not yet arrived, the winter storage and transportation has not yet started, and the coal market and coal enterprises are under great pressure of sales. It is expected that the inventory of ports around the Bohai Sea will continue to remain high throughout October, and the trading price of coal in the port market is likely to fall further. However, affected by factors such as shipping cost and winter storage expectation, when the coal price falls below 570 CNY/ton, it will be supported by cost, and the trade chamber will hold up the price by resistance, so it is unlikely to continue to fall sharply. The author predicts that with the power plant actively consuming its own inventory and the possibility of further increase in daily consumption, the days available for coal storage will be reduced. Near winter storage, the enthusiasm of power plant transportation has increased, and the coal price has dropped to the lowest level this year, so downstream users and some fuel companies are in the bottom of their minds. It is expected that by the end of October and the beginning of November, power plants and other users in coastal areas of China will start to rush to transport electricity and coal. China's Bohai Rim port once again ushers in the scene of double arrival of vehicles and ships, and the port market coal trading price will stop falling and stabilize. However, under the influence of imported coal supplement, even if the coal price rises, the increase will not be very large.