Power coal futures price falls below 557 CNY/ton!

Recently, the short market is strong, and the spot market and futures market of power coal are weak. Today's think tank noted that the price of power coal futures for delivery in January next year has dropped below 557 CNY/ton, approaching the annual long-term price. As of the closing of the night market on October 18 last Friday, Zheng coal, the main contract of power coal futures, closed at 556.8 CNY/ton, with the latest lowest price of 554.6 CNY/ton, reaching the lowest level in more than two years. Today, think tanks believe that it is obvious that the futures market is testing the annual long-term price of 554 CNY/ton. One of the main reasons is the acceleration of domestic production capacity release and the high market supply; the other is the large-scale increase of imported coal year-on-year, and the future trend is not clear. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the output of raw coal in September was 320 million tons, up 4.4% year-on-year, with an average daily output of 10.8 million tons and a month on month increase of 610000 tons. In the first three quarters, the output of raw coal was 2.74 billion tons, up 4.5% year on year. The daily average output has remained above 10 million tons, and the market supply is relatively sufficient. In terms of imported coal, it has exceeded 30 million tons for three consecutive months. According to the big data of China's coal from today's think tank, in September, China imported 30.288 million tons of coal, an increase of 5.151 million tons or 20.49% year on year. From January to September, China imported 250.573 million tons of coal, up 9.5% year on year. The supply of imported coal is sufficient and the price advantage is obvious. In order to reduce the cost of coastal power plants, the amount of coal purchased from the north market is very small. The country began to tighten coal imports in October last year, but no clear message has been given so far this year. According to today's think tank, the current situation of supply exceeding demand in the power coal market has formed. If the country does not tighten the import of coal, it is only a matter of time before the futures price of power coal falls below the annual long-term cooperative price and the spot price of power coal falls below the annual long-term cooperative price.